Topic: Inflation

Has the Disinflation Process Stalled?

– May 26, 2023

“Fed officials may worry that the disinflation process has stalled. For this reason, the latest data likely increases uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy.” ~ William J. Luther

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What’s Next for the Fed?

– May 22, 2023

“A wide range of outcomes are still possible for 2023, ranging from stagflation to a ‘soft landing.'” ~ Thomas L. Hogan

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The Greedflation Myth

– May 20, 2023

“Politicians on the left would like us to believe inflation is caused by greedy corporations. And some academics are all too happy to provide them with theoretical cover.” ~ William J. Luther

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Three Proposals for Price Stability

– May 20, 2023

“As a ‘dark horse’ candidate, Ramaswamy has a greater burden of proof before the electorate. He needs to prove his policy proposals are a cut above his rivals’.” ~ Alexander W. Salter

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How Congress Should Reform the Fed

– May 18, 2023

“Congress should narrow the Fed’s regulatory concerns to maintaining adequate bank capital. It should also consider abolishing the discount window entirely.” ~ Alexander William Salter

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Can the Fed Continue to Fight Inflation without Risking a Financial Crisis?

– May 18, 2023

“In principle, the Fed has the ability to provide liquidity to the banking system while simultaneously reducing the incentives banks have to make loans.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger

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Federal Reserve Raises Rate Target, Likely To Pause For Some Time

– May 5, 2023

“In March, the median FOMC member projected the federal funds rate target would close the year above 5.0 percent. But the federal funds futures market is pricing in better-than-even odds that the target rate is less than 5.0 percent following the September meeting.” ~ William J. Luther

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The Path to Full Stagflation

– May 3, 2023

“The US economy looks to be pointed in a troubling direction. Federal unemployment data shows record low unemployment, but state-level data paints a different picture: one where the current ‘stagflation lite’ conditions could soon become fully stagflationary.” ~ Peter C. Earle

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Have We Crested the Inflation Wave?

– April 7, 2023

“My view is the Fed should pause its rate hikes in the short-run. Disintermediation might be the cause of recent money-supply trends. In the long-run, the Fed should resume forward guidance, but not on interest rates.” ~ Alexander William Salter

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Inflation Slowed in February, But Remained High

– April 1, 2023

“Recent experience should prompt calls for the Fed to adopt a symmetric average inflation target when it reevaluates its mandate in 2024 and 2025.” ~ William J. Luther

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Monetary Policy and that Old-Time Fiscal Religion

– March 26, 2023

“Nominal income targeting can potentially restore the old-time fiscal religion. Like the classical gold standard, this approach stabilizes total spending in the economy, rendering counter-cyclical fiscal policy unnecessary and ineffective.” ~ Bryan P. Cutsinger & Louis Rouanet

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Money and Inflation Are Still Related

– March 26, 2023

“M2 in 2020 and 2021 increased by the largest percentages in the last 60 years. To the surprise of the Federal Reserve (although not everyone), inflation resulted.” ~ John Devereux & Gerald P. Dwyer

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