Topic: Economic Trends

What’s Next for the Fed?

“A wide range of outcomes are still possible for 2023, ranging from stagflation to a ‘soft landing.'” ~ Thomas L. Hogan

All Housing is Still Affordable Housing: “Seen and Unseen” Edition

“The unseen cause of gentrification is the knee-jerk NIMBYism of affluent leftist neighborhood associations. And that causes the elimination of almost all affordable housing in the city, quickly.” ~ Michael Munger

America’s Long Depression

“The US economy may continue to grow or shrink a few percent from year to year, but it will remain mired in a deep depression compared to what it could have achieved.” ~ Robert E. Wright

Can the Fed Continue to Fight Inflation without Risking a Financial Crisis?

“In principle, the Fed has the ability to provide liquidity to the banking system while simultaneously reducing the incentives banks have to make loans.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger

Taylor Swift, Turn Your Wrath to Government!

“The entity that Taylor Swift and her legion of fans are turning to save themselves from a predatory monopoly that engages in shifty pricing is itself a predatory monopoly that engages in shifty pricing.” ~ Anthony Gill

Coronavirus and Economic Crisis

Prices Continue to Rise, Exceeding Fed Projections

“The Fed seems resolved to see inflation climb further. I expect FOMC members will revise up their projections of inflation again in June. They should revise their course of action, to bring inflation down as planned, instead.” ~ William J. Luther

How High Will Inflation Be in 2021?

“Inflation will be noticeably higher in 2021 than it has been in some time. An important question is whether it will be followed by the widely predicted lower inflation or by higher inflation in subsequent years.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer

Labor Force Participation Over the Covid-19 Recession

“Now that the economy is recovering, demand for labor has outpaced the supply—too many workers are unwilling to work under post-pandemic conditions, though this will likely be alleviated as relief and unemployment benefits expire.” ~ Robert F. Mulligan

What Happened to All Those Jobs?

“We have far fewer jobs than we expected to have and, at the current tepid recovery, a decade’s journey to return to the health we had just prior to Covid-19. This is, of course, bad enough. Sober reflection, though, should lead quickly to the conclusion that the ruling class in Washington will manage to do even more to harm the economy in the meantime. It’s what they do, after all.” ~ Antony Davies & James R. Harrigan

Is the US Economy a Virtual Reality?

“It’s impossible to know precisely what the future portends for all these unprecedented policy shocks over the last year, from money supply and spending bonanzas to lockdowns to sky-high debt accumulation. But because a thing called cause-and-effect still operates in this world – we do not live in virtual reality – it seems wise to look at the seemingly great aggregate data with a gravely skeptical eye. We might be in the midst of the calm before the real storm hits.” ~ Jeffrey Tucker

The Everything Bubble and What it Means for Your Money

“The Everything Bubble is a grand illusion, money is growing more plentiful, credit more available. Asset prices are not really rising; it is the value of money which is being systematically undermined. I wonder whether the motto for this pandemic will be carpe diem, quam minimum credula pecunia – seize the day, place no trust in money?” ~ Colin Lloyd