Government vs. The Economy

– October 17, 2011

Score Update: Government beating economy 21-3 late in 4th quarter… I hate to use sports metaphors when talking about the economy because, while the two realms share some basic themes (like competition), their outcomes are radically different. For insta …


(Poison) Ivy League Economists Dis the Gold Standard

– October 16, 2011

As the Wall Street Journal reports, 6 Yale economists convened last week in New Haven to discuss “The State of the U.S. Economy: How Do We Create More Jobs?” Not surprisingly, their answers were straight out of the Keynesian playbook: more stimulus, in …


Stagnation Is Not Recession

– September 6, 2011

Business Cycle ConditionsSeptember, 2011Growth may be slow, with taxes offsetting increases in income. But the economy shows surprising structural Steven R. Cunningham, PhD, Director of Research and Education



– August 11, 2011

The turmoils affecting the economics and financial markets in the United States and Europe do not seem to go away as fast as anyone would want to. Those who warned that this may be a crisis with a “W” shape may well be right. The recent downgrade in fr …


Where Is the U.S. Going?

– August 4, 2011

This week was of high political voltage because of the debt ceiling debate. Could the most important economy in the world default its debt? And in such case, what would happen, not only to the United States, but to the worldwide economy, given that we …


Structural Shifts Hamper Recovery

– August 1, 2011

Business Cycle ConditionsAugust 2011Weakness is spreading as the jobless rate remains high and several parts of the economy adjust to changing times and struggle to recover from Polina Vlasenko, PhD, Research Fellow


Gold Standard or Bust

– July 25, 2011

Article and photo originally published at The Weekly Standard August 1, 2011 As the truth-or-dare battle over raising the debt ceiling moves toward a resolution of some sort, we are witnessing a unique political moment, with attention finally riveted o …


The Recovery’s Anemia May Last Awhile

– June 3, 2011

Business Cycle ConditionsJune, 2011Excessive debt keeps the private sector from taking off. No government stimulus can fix Polina Vlasenko, PhD, Research Fellow


“Hoenig Urges Fed to Raise Interest Rates to Encourage Saving” – Bloomberg

– May 30, 2011

“Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig, the central bank’s longest-serving policy maker, said the U.S. needs to raise interest rates to encourage individuals to save and avoid future asset bubbles. Hoenig, who doesn’t vote on mone …


“Gold Bubble, Debt Bubble, or Both?” – Seeking Alpha

– May 24, 2011

“To begin, the national debt has provoked concern over the stability of US debt. Last month Standard and Poor’s revised its sovereign credit rating of the U.S. in the long-term from stable to negative. Last week the US reached its debt limit, which, ju …


“Partly Caused by Inflation, US Home Starts Stumbled in April” – Reed

– May 19, 2011

“The U.S. Consumer Price Index for April provided insight into one reason why the housing market is so quiet. While home prices have been showing steady erosion so far this year, as recorded by the S&P Case-Shiller index, the price level for a bask …


“An Austrian Rehabilitation of the Phillips Curve” – Cato Journal

– May 19, 2011

“William Niskanen (2002) estimated a Phillips curve for the United States using annual 1960–2000 data. By adding one-year lagged terms in unemployment and infl ation, he was able to show that this familiar equation is misspecified. In his improved specifi …