Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Business-Cycle Conditions, Inflation, Sound Banking, Sound Money Project, Unemployment

Job Creation via Jobless Benefits and Fed Money Printing: Signs of a Modern Day Depression

– November 30, 2012

Jobless benefits cant create Jobs

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Business-Cycle Conditions

The Consumer Sees Reasons to Spend

– November 1, 2012

Business-Cycle ConditionsNov. 2012As the holiday season draws near, confidence rises because of falling unemployment, an improving housing market, lower debt, and buoyant stock prices.by Steven R. Cunningham, PhD, Director of Research and Educatio …

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Central Banking, Economic Education, Gold, Gold Standard, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Sound Banking, Sound Money Project

Gold Can Save Us From Disaster

– October 24, 2012

A new gold standard is crucial. The disasters that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are inflicting on us with their funny-money policies are enormous and underappreciated.

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Monetary Policy, Sound Banking, Sound Money Project

A “Kleinian” Version of Austrian Business Cycle Theory

– October 19, 2012

The next phase in my (now our, as I’ve taken on a colleague) project of thinking through Dan Klein’s Knowledge and Coordination is to see how his ideas might be used to help describe business cycle theories and demonstrate commonalities they share.

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Gold, Gold Standard, Inflation, International, Sound Money, Sound Money Project

Currencies: Re-evaluating the ghost of gold

– October 12, 2012

Imagine if, over time, as our solar system swings around the Sun, the planet Jupiter suddenly put on a tremendous amount of weight. Over time the gravitational pull of the planets — and the Sun — would begin spinning around Jupiter, causing great celes …

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Energy, Inflation, International, Sound Money, Sound Money Project

What Will Benefit From Global Recession? The US Dollar

– October 9, 2012

Understanding the euro’s failure and Triffin’s Paradox helps us understand why the dollar will rise significantly in the years ahead.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Out of Sync

– October 5, 2012

Business-Cycle ConditionsOctober 2012Consumers see a brightening economic picture, but business decision makers remain cautious.by Steven R. Cunningham, PhD, Director of Research and Education

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Central Banking, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Sound Money Project

Does QE3 Mark the Beginning of the End of the Bond Bubble?

– October 2, 2012

With savings rates at historic lows and budget deficits at historic highs, it makes little sense that interest rates should remain this low for this long. While the Federal Reserve has received much praise for keeping rates low with its Quantitative Ea …

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gold money
Business-Cycle Conditions, Gold, Gold Standard, Sound Money Project

The Case for Gold

– September 20, 2012

Working with a team of economists, Paul and Lehrman produced a work that is as sound and prescient today as when first published.

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Central Banking, Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Sound Money Project

Why QE3 Will Fail

– September 17, 2012

Study of business cycles must be based upon a satisfactory cycle theory. Gazing at sheaves of statistics without “prejudgment” is futile. A cycle takes place in the economic world, and therefore a usable cycle theory must be integrated with general eco …

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Government Sector Recession

– September 3, 2012

Business-Cycle ConditionsSeptember 2012Stimulus programs can’t go on forever. Eventually, something has to give.by Steven R. Cunningham, PhD, Director of Research and Education

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Central Banking, Gold, Gold Standard, Monetary Policy, Sound Money, Sound Money Project

Ezra Klein Mistakes the Arsonist for a Firefighter

– August 30, 2012

Does Klein really believe that the Fed currently adjusts the value of the dollar according to “the needs of our economy?”

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