Topic: Business Conditions

Unit Auto Sales Improved in September But Remained Weak

– October 4, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales rose in September but remained well below pre-pandemic ranges. Inventory also rose, and car prices showed a decline.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

September Manufacturing-Sector Survey Suggests Weakening Activity and Less Intense Price Pressures

– October 3, 2022

“The latest manufacturing survey shows signs of weakness and significantly less-intense price pressures. Persistently elevated price increases and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Remained Weak in September

– September 30, 2022

“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged in September and remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations fell to a 12-month low, but consumer uncertainty about the outlook remains elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Labor Market Remains Tight as Initial Claims Fall Again

– September 29, 2022

“Declining weekly initial claims suggest the labor market remains solid. However, persistently elevated rates of price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

New Single-Family Home Sales Jump in August, but Headwinds Intensify

– September 27, 2022

“New-home sales bounced higher in August, but inventories rose again. Elevated prices and surging mortgage rates reduce affordability and are likely to weaken future demand.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Rose Again in September, but Risks Remain

– September 27, 2022

“Consumer confidence improved in September, and inflation expectations eased slightly. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from Russian aggression in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Real Nondefense Capital-Goods Orders Remain in a Flat Trend

– September 27, 2022

“Real manufacturers’ new orders trend growth remains weak. Rising prices, Fed policy tightening, and global turmoil sustain elevated risks.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Inflation Expectations Fell and Sentiment Edged Higher in Early September

– September 16, 2022

“Consumer sentiment edged higher in early September but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations fell to a 12-month low, but consumer uncertainty about the economy rose.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Industrial Output Fell, but Manufacturing Output Rose Slightly in August

– September 15, 2022

“Manufacturing output rose slightly in August. However, elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Real Core Retail Sales Fell in August, Trend Growth Is Weak

– September 15, 2022

“Real core retail sales fell in August, and the recent trend growth is weak. Threats to the economy remain significant, and risks remain elevated. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Initial Claims Fall for the Fifth Consecutive Week

– September 15, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell for a fifth consecutive week suggesting the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases, low consumer confidence, and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

AIER Leading Indicators Index Signals Continued Elevated Risks

– September 14, 2022

“The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in August, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes