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The ADP national payroll report for August suggests private payrolls in the U.S. added 177,000 new jobs. The 177,000 gain for August is less than what we saw in July, which was revised upward to an estimated 194,000. We pay attention to this report because it tends to suggest what we might see from the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The Commerce Department report on manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods showed a strong gain in July, the best month since January (Chart 1). Orders for durable goods jumped 4.4 percent following a 4.2 percent decline in June.
READ MOREThe latest data on real gross domestic product, or GDP, show that the economy expanded an anemic 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016. That is the first time the U.S. economy has posted three consecutive quarters of growth below 1.5 percent since the time of the Great Recession.
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Over the last week we’ve received a clearer picture of a labor market that remains healthy.
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While the jobs market and consumer spending have showed renewed strength recently, the nation’s manufacturers continue to struggle.
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New housing starts came in this week at 1.189 million units at an annual rate in June, while housing permits rose to 1.153 million. Both were increases over the May figures, and are well above the lows following the Great Recession.
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The United Kingdom’s surprising June 23 referendum vote to leave the European Union caused dramatic short-term moves in global capital markets. Yet, less than a month after the historic vote on what we know as “Brexit,” much of the initial reaction across capital markets has reversed.
READ MOREThe U.K.’s surprising June 23 referendum vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) caused dramatic moves in global capital markets. In the days that followed, politicians from around the world offered a wide range of comments, from support for Brexit and independence movements in other European nations to anger and threats. In the U.K. protesters against Brexit took to the streets, while a string of political resignations left a leadership void.
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Alcoa will report second quarter sales and profits after the close of U.S. trading today, marking the unofficial start of earnings season. Actually, 23 companies in the S&P 500 have already reported second-quarter results. When we blend those actual results with consensus expectations for those companies that have not yet reported, we find that topline sales growth is expected to fall by 0.7 percent versus a year ago.
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The results of the referendum in the United Kingdom to leave the European Union have come as a shock to many, especially investors. While we have no greater insight into what the future holds, there are some things that are known.
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We are seeing two additional indications that are positive signs for the economy. First, household balance sheets are improving.
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AIER’s Leading Indicators model rebounded in May to the neutral level of 50, following two months at 38, which had indicated a somewhat higher risk of recession.
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