Topic: Business Conditions

Ask the Economist: Hours Worked and Wage Growth

– October 20, 2016

Kevin C. Donnelly asks: “Where does the data suggest the average American is in terms of work hours a week and wage growth less inflation, and what does that mean for long-run trends?” Thanks for the question. For hours worked, there has been a long-te …

READ MORE

Gasoline, Housing Push Up Cost of Living

– October 18, 2016

Inflation trends tend to evolve slowly, though individual components like energy prices or food prices can be volatile month to month. There are three key points to note from the September CPI report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: First, the tota …

READ MORE

Our Economic Index Moves Into Positive Territory

– October 17, 2016

Our index of leading indicators moved back above 50 for the first time since January, reflecting a more positive tilt to recent economic data. That’s according to our October edition of Business Conditions Monthly, which we are releasing today. However …

READ MORE

A Solid, Not Spectacular Jobs Report

– October 7, 2016

A solid though not spectacular September Employment Report suggests the economy is maintaining positive momentum heading into the fourth quarter. Accelerating wage gains on top of a good pace of jobs growth should provide support for further increases …

READ MORE

Good News and Somewhat Good News

– October 6, 2016

The monthly economic data cycle kicked off with two early reads on activity for September. First is the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, a survey of purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers. The composite PMI rebou …

READ MORE

Business Investment Shows Some Life

– September 29, 2016

Durable goods orders were flat in August, but core capital goods posted their third straight gain, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Orders for durable goods – items meant to last three years or more – were unchanged i …

READ MORE

New Home Sales Pull Back in August

– September 28, 2016

  Sales of new single-family homes fell in August after posting strong gains for much of the past year. Sales came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 609,000, down from 659,000 in July, a drop of 10.7 percent.  However, that is 33 per …

READ MORE

Higher Household Net Worth Should Support Economy

– September 19, 2016

With the consumer being the engine of the slow but steady economic expansion, some new data from the Federal Reserve Board suggests that engine can continue motoring along. Household balance sheets are benefitting from increasing asset values. Total as …

READ MORE

September Business Conditions Monthly

– September 14, 2016

The U.S. economy continues to expand at a pace below its long-term average. Revised data show the economy grew at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter compared with a long-term average annual rate of 3.2 percent. Consumer spending, a key driver, rose 4.4 percent and contributed 2.9 percentage points to overall economic growth. Business fixed investment remains weak, hampered by poor performance in the domestic energy industry, but our conclusion remains that it may well improve in the second half of 2016.

READ MORE

Americans Are Increasing Their Credit Usage

– September 12, 2016

Amid some conflicting economic signals, Americans are still showing an increasing willingness to expand their credit use. This may be a sign that despite flagging business investment and moderate growth in the jobs market, consumers remain confident in their personal financial situations.

READ MORE

Labor Market Continues to Tighten

– September 7, 2016

These data suggest the labor market may be quite tight. This would also suggest support for better wage growth, as employers bid up wages to lure the best candidates to fill open jobs.

READ MORE

Manufacturing Sector Took a Turn for the Worse in August

– September 1, 2016

Yesterday we noted the weaker reading from the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area. This tends to foreshadow the state of the national manufacturing sector. The Chicago report turned out to be a good predictor of the national manufacturing index released today by the Institute for Supply Management.

READ MORE