Topic: Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Fell in October

– October 25, 2022

“Consumer confidence fell in October as inflation expectations ticked up slightly. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Existing Home Sales Fall Again

– October 20, 2022

“Existing-home sales fell again in September as reduced affordability pushes buyers out of the market. The outlook for housing is unfavorable.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Initial Claims Suggest Continued Strength for the Labor Market

– October 20, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell, and the low level suggests the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Single-Family Starts and Permits Continue to Fall as Mortgage Rates Rise

– October 19, 2022

“Single-family housing starts and permits fell again in September as demand continued to weaken. Plunging homebuilder sentiment suggests an unfavorable outlook for housing.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Industrial Output Increases to a Record High in September

– October 18, 2022

“The industrial sector grew in September, posting record output. However, elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Third Consecutive Month in September

– October 13, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.4 in September, driven by falling gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls Farther Below Neutral

– October 12, 2022

“The AIER Leading Indicators Index fell farther below neutral in September, approaching the levels at the start of some prior recessions and signaling sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Payroll Growth Continues, Labor Market Remains Solid

– October 7, 2022

“Payrolls posted gains in September, but the pace has been slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Initial Claims Rise but Remain Low

– October 6, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose, but the low level suggests the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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September Services-Sector Expansion Continues, Price Pressures Ease Again

– October 5, 2022

“Services-sector expansion continued in September. Labor and materials shortages are showing some signs of easing. However, signs of softening demand and concern about a weakening economy were also noted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Private-Sector Job Openings Fell Sharply in August

– October 4, 2022

“Private-sector job openings fell sharply, and layoffs rose, adding to the evidence of a weakening economy. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Unit Auto Sales Improved in September But Remained Weak

– October 4, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales rose in September but remained well below pre-pandemic ranges. Inventory also rose, and car prices showed a decline.” ~ Robert Hughes

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