Topic: Business Conditions

Compensation Costs Rose in the Second Quarter

– July 31, 2018

Total compensation costs for all civilian workers rose 0.6 percent in the second quarter, less than the 0.8 percent rise in the first quarter. Compensation-costs increases have trended higher in recent years however, the rate of increase remains moderate by historical measures.

Business Conditions

Real GDP Growth Rebounds Sharply in the Second Quarter

– July 27, 2018

Real gross domestic product rose at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, up from a revised 2.2 percent pace in the first quarter, while consumer-price increases decelerated in the second quarter. Overall, the very solid report suggests the U.S. economic expansion remains healthy.

Business Conditions

Capital-Spending Prospects Remain Strong

– July 26, 2018

New orders for durable goods jumped 1.0 percent in June while new orders for core capital goods rose 0.6 percent. Both are showing strong uptrends over the past two years.

Business Conditions

Sales of New and Existing Homes Are Slowing as Supply Rises

– July 25, 2018

Sales of new and existing single-family homes fell in June as inventories rose, boosting the supply of homes on the market, measured in months. Still, the economy overall remains very healthy.

Business Conditions

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Again, and Leading Indicators Rise

– July 19, 2018

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 207,000 for the latest week, the lowest reading since 1969, while the Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board posted a 0.5 percent increase in June. Overall, the preponderance of data support an upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy.

Business Conditions

New Housing Starts and Permits Fall in June as Activity Plateaus

– July 18, 2018

Housing construction fell in June as single-family and multifamily starts declined. Housing permits, an indicator of future activity, also fell in the latest month. Overall, housing construction and permits appear to be plateauing after rebounding from the housing boom-bust cycle in the early 2000s.

Business Conditions

Gains in Industrial Production Support a Positive Outlook

– July 17, 2018

Industrial production jumped 0.6 percent in June on broad-based gains. Along with other solid economic data and very strong readings from the AIER leading indicators index, the outlook for continued economic expansion remains favorable.

Business Conditions

July Business Conditions Monthly

– July 12, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators eased back in June, registering a 92 following three straight 100s. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index also registered a 92 following three consecutive perfect 100s. The Lagging Indicators index …

Business Conditions

Small-Business Confidence Remains Very High, but Labor Concerns Continue

– July 10, 2018

The latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business shows small-business confidence remains very high, supported by favorable expectations for the economy and future sales. However, the lack of qualified candidates for open positions is a major concern.

Business Conditions

Strong Jobs Report Supports a Favorable Outlook

– July 6, 2018

Payrolls in the United States rose by 213,000 in June on widespread gains among industries. Combined with other strong economic data and the positive results from the AIER Index of Leading Indicators, today’s report suggests a positive outlook for the current expansion.

Business Conditions

Durable-Goods Orders Tick Down in May but Remain in an Uptrend

– June 27, 2018

New orders for durable goods fell 0.6 percent in May. However, orders have been on a solid rising trend over the past two years and recent declines do not appear to suggest that the rising trend is in danger.

Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Ticked Down in June but Remains at a Very High Level

– June 26, 2018

Despite a slight dip in June, consumer confidence remains at historically favorable levels suggesting ongoing economic expansion in the short term. However, consumers’ expectations may be plateauing, possibly reflecting escalating trade tensions.