Topic: Business Conditions

Income and Spending Post Gains in July

– August 30, 2018

Personal income rose 0.3 percent in July while total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.4 percent. Gains in disposable income should provide support for future increases in spending and suggest a positive outlook for the economy.

Business Conditions

When Will the Debt Trap Snap?

– August 30, 2018

A new recession would not only mean lower or even negative economic growth rates, it would also induce governments to increase public spending. Then, the public debt quotient (debt over gross domestic product) would rise because of a lower denominator and a higher numerator. With the interest rate at historical lows, and the debt ratios already at the point of fiscal unsustainability, there is no space for a new stimulus.

Business Conditions

Corporate Profits Hit a New Record as GDP Growth Is Revised Higher

– August 29, 2018

Revised estimates show the U.S. economy grew at a 4.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter while after-tax profits rose 3.7 percent to a record $1,968.5 billion at an annual rate.

Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Closing In on a New Record High

– August 28, 2018

Consumer Confidence rose for the second month in a row, to the highest level since October 2000. Overall, consumer attitudes remain at historically favorable levels, suggesting support for future gains in consumer spending and overall economic growth.

Business Conditions

Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Surge to a Record

– August 24, 2018

New orders for durable goods fell 0.2 percent in July, however, excluding aircraft, orders jumped 1.3 percent to a record high. The data suggest that demand remains strong and that the outlook for the economy remains positive.

Business Conditions

Prices and Interest Rates May Be Weighing on Housing

– August 23, 2018

Sales of new single-family homes fell 1.7 percent in July. Slowing sales are coinciding with slowing construction suggesting new-home building is unlikely to contribute significantly to growth in coming quarters.

Business Conditions

Existing-Home Sales Fell Again in July

– August 22, 2018

Sales of existing homes fell in July, the fourth consecutive decline. Declining affordability due to rising home prices and rising interest rates is likely to continue weighing on housing activity in coming quarters.

Business Conditions

August Business Conditions Monthly

– August 20, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index eased back in July, registering a 79 following a 92. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index returned to a perfect 100 reading while the Lagging Indicators index fell to 83 (see chart below). De …

Business Conditions

Retail Sales Easily Beat Expectations in July

– August 15, 2018

Retail sales for July rose 0.5 percent, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains. The report suggests that U.S. economic growth is maintaining strong momentum, supported by consumer spending.

Business Conditions

Small-Business Confidence Is Booming

– August 14, 2018

The Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business rose 0.7 points in July, coming in at 107.9, the second-highest in history, extending a run of 20 consecutive months above 100.

Business Conditions

High Rates for Job Openings and Quits Suggest a Very Tight Labor Market

– August 7, 2018

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the number of open positions in the private sector was essentially unchanged in June, holding at a very high level. Overall, the data relating to the labor market continue to show strength.

Business Conditions

Despite a Weak Headline, the July Jobs Report Is Upbeat

– August 3, 2018

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 157,000 jobs in July, below consensus expectations. However, job creation appears to have reaccelerated over the past ten months, supporting gains in hourly earnings. Overall, the report was upbeat.