Topic: Business Conditions

Business Conditions

Economic Prediction Is Harder than the Pundits Claim

– July 12, 2019

A recession could be coming tomorrow, or it could be coming in 10 years. The point is, we don’t know.

Business Conditions

July Business Conditions Monthly

– July 12, 2019

AIER’s Leading Indicators index was unchanged in June, holding at the neutral reading of 50. The Lagging Indicators index was also unchanged in the latest month, repeating the May result of 42. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index fell for a second …

Business Conditions

Small-Business Confidence Holding at a High Level

– July 9, 2019

Small-business confidence and job openings eased back but remain at high levels. Both are positive signs for the economy despite the high level of uncertainty caused by erratic and uncertain policy.

Business Conditions

Job Creation Rebounds in June

– July 5, 2019

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 224,000 jobs in June, all but guaranteeing a record-tying expansion, but uncertain leadership and policy remain significant risks.

Business Conditions

Slow Growth Continues as Expansion Sets Record

– July 3, 2019

A variety of data released today suggest continued economic expansion. Despite concerns over trade policy, escalating trade wars, and global economic growth that are creating significant uncertainty, the outlook is cautiously optimistic.

Business Conditions

Manufacturing Expansion Slowed for a Third Month in a Row in June

– July 1, 2019

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its third straight decline and lowest reading since October 2016. Mixed economic data continue to suggest a high degree of caution amid slow economic expansion.

Business Conditions

Sentiment Fell in June Despite Gains in Income and Spending in May

– June 28, 2019

Consumer sentiment fell slightly in June but remains at a high level while income and spending continued to grow in May. Tariffs and trade wars remain a significant risk.

Business Conditions

Core Capital-Goods Orders Holding Near Record High

– June 26, 2019

New orders for durable goods decreased in May while core capital-goods orders rose; both appear to be plateauing amid rising uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.

Business Conditions

Multifamily Construction Leads the Housing Market

– June 18, 2019

Single-family housing activity continues to weaken with little evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future, but multifamily housing activity remains robust.

Business Conditions

Retail Sales and Industrial Production Rise in May; Consumer Sentiment Falls in Early June

– June 14, 2019

Gains in retail sales and industrial production in May are a positive for the economy, but trade wars are impacting consumer attitudes and represent a threat to the economic outlook.

Business Conditions

June Business Conditions Monthly

– June 14, 2019

AIER’s Leading Indicators index rose 12 points to a neutral reading of 50 in May, up from 38 in April. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index both fell, to 75 and 42, respectively (see chart). May is the second consecu …

Business Conditions

Small-Business Confidence Remains Strong Amid a Tight Labor Market

– June 11, 2019

Small-business confidence rose in May while job openings remain at historically high levels in April. Both are positive signs for the economy despite the high level of uncertainty caused by erratic trade policy.