Topic: Business Conditions

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Surges 3.0 Percent in March

– April 12, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index surged in March as upward price pressures continue. Global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle are boosting uncertainty for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

AIER Leading Indicators Index Improves Slightly, Remains Near Neutral

– April 11, 2022

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February. Rapidly rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are boosting uncertainty. Expect continued volatility for the AIER business cycle indicators over coming months. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Services-Sector Shows Improvement in March

– April 5, 2022

“Services-sector expansion broadened in March as labor shortages eased slightly but materials shortages and price pressures continue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a new source of price pressure and disruption to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Auto Industry Struggles Continued in March

– April 4, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales fell again in March. Assemblies remain weak as component shortages continue to restrain production, but inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels. Global supply chains remain disrupted with the Russian invasion of Ukraine adding to global turmoil.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Manufacturing-Sector Survey Suggests Slower Expansion but Increased Price Pressures in March

– April 1, 2022

“Manufacturing-sector demand expanded at a slower pace in March and price pressures intensified. Ongoing labor and logistical issues continue to restrain output and recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Private Payrolls Add 426,000 Jobs in March

– April 1, 2022

“Payroll gains remained strong in March, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, and turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weak Growth for Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers

– March 31, 2022

“Personal income rose in February but real income excluding transfers fell, suggesting a threat to real spending. The outlook for the economy has become highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Tick Up but Remain Near the Lowest Level Since 1969

– March 31, 2022

“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Private-Sector Job Openings and Quits Remain Elevated

– March 29, 2022

“Job openings and quits remained near record levels in February. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, a newly initiated Fed tightening cycle, and global political and economic turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are raising the risks for the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Improved Slightly as Expectations Plunged in March

– March 29, 2022

“Consumer expectations weakened again in March, but improved present views offset the decline, lifting overall consumer confidence. Elevated price pressures, Russian aggression in Ukraine, and a Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Fell in March, Remains at Recessionary Level

– March 25, 2022

“Consumer sentiment fell again in March and is consistent with prior recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Durable-goods Orders Fell in February on Broad-based Declines, But Remain High

– March 24, 2022

“New orders for core capital goods fell in February though the level remains high. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes