Topic: Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Ticked Up in April, but the Level Remains Low

– April 29, 2022

“Consumer sentiment ended higher in April but remains consistent with prior recessions. Elevated risks are sustaining a high level of uncertainty for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weak Headline Masks Underlying Resilience in First Quarter GDP

– April 28, 2022

“Weak headline GDP growth masks the resilience of private domestic demand. However, continued price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the war in Ukraine, and upcoming elections are boosting risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Ticked Lower and Remain Below the Pre-Pandemic Level

– April 28, 2022

“Weekly initial claims continue to suggest a very tight labor market and is a support for consumers. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain significant risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

New Single-Family Home Sales Fell Again in March as Prices and Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise

– April 26, 2022

“New-home sales fell again in March as prices and mortgage rates continue to rise. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates may further weaken demand, and combined with significant inventory, put downward pressure on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Durable-goods Orders Posted a Broad-based Rebound in March

– April 26, 2022

“Manufacturers’ new orders rebounded in March and remain near record highs. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Remain Below Pre-Pandemic Level for Eleventh Consecutive Week

– April 21, 2022

“Low weekly initial claims suggest a very tight labor market and is a support for consumers. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle are significant risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Existing Home Sales Fell Again as Prices Rise and Inventory Remains Very Low

– April 20, 2022

“Existing-home sales fell again in March, but supply remains very tight. Shifting housing preferences, record-high prices, and surging mortgage rates are likely to impact demand over the coming months and quarters.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Home Construction Remained Robust in March but Headwinds Are Gaining Strength

– April 19, 2022

“Single-family starts and permits were off in March while multifamily rose; all remain at solid levels. Surging mortgage rates and elevated home prices are strengthening headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Strong Gain in Industrial Output in March

– April 15, 2022

“Industrial output rose again in March. However, a range of economic and geopolitical issues continue to restrain the ability of manufacturers to meet the significantly higher demand that has emerged following the lockdown recession.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

A Bounce in Expectations Pushed Consumer Sentiment Up in Early April

– April 14, 2022

“Consumer sentiment bounced higher in early April but remains consistent with prior recessions. Expectations jumped on a decline in gas prices, but economic risks remain elevated. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Real Retail Sales Are Trending Flat

– April 14, 2022

“Retail sales rose in March but fell after adjusting for price changes. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a new Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Tick Up but Remain Near Record Lows

– April 14, 2022

“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes