Single-Family Starts and Permits Fell Again in July
“Single-family housing starts and permits fell in July as demand continued to weaken. Plunging homebuilder sentiment suggests an unfavorable outlook for housing.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Improved in Early August but Remains Very Low
“Consumer sentiment ticked up in early August but hovers near record lows. Inflation expectations eased but remain a driver of weak consumer attitudes. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Increase for the Fifth Time in the Last Six Weeks
“Weekly initial claims rose again, continuing the recent upward trend. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, low consumer confidence, and aggressive Fed tightening are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls 0.6 Percent in July
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.6 in July, the first drop since November 2020. An intensifying Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls to 29, Signals Broadening Weakness
The AIER Leading Indicators Index is well below neutral, signaling broadening weakness in the economy and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.
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Big Upside Surprise for the July Jobs Report
“Payrolls posted a strong gain in July, though other labor market indicators are still questionable. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and ongoing fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Increase for the Fourth Time in the Last Five Weeks
“Weekly initial claims rose again, continuing the recent upward trend. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, aggressive Fed tightening, and a softening labor market are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Services-Sector Activity Picks Up in July
“Services-sector expansion continued in July. Ongoing labor and materials shortages and intense price pressures are still concerns, as are emerging signs of softening demand and a weakening economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Unit Auto Sales Rose for a Second Consecutive Month but Remain Weak
“Light-vehicle sales rose again in July but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Inventory shows signs of stabilization recently, but prices continued to rise.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private-Sector Job Openings and Quits Fall for a Third Consecutive Month
“Private-sector job openings and quits fell for a third consecutive month in June, adding to the evidence of a weakening economy. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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July Manufacturing-Sector Survey Points to Slowing
“The latest manufacturing survey suggests continued expansion but easing price pressures and uncertainty about the future. Persistently elevated price increases and an intensifying Fed policy tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Remained Near Record Lows in Late July
“Consumer sentiment ticked up in July but remains near record lows and consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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