“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“The recent reduction in disinflationary pressures related to core goods, which had been a significant factor in easing price pressures in recent months, seems to have diminished.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“While the likelihood of another rate hike in the final FOMC meeting of 2023 this week is low, the slowing rate of disinflation and stubbornly elevated prices suggest that speculation regarding the start of rate cuts is, at best, early.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“While we continue to impartially and vigilantly assess incoming data, our current analysis still points to a recession occurring before September 2024 as the most probable scenario.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“The October inflation release provides a welcome respite from resurgent price increases over the past few months. But while the most recent CPI and EPI readings relay a positive state of affairs in the resumption of disinflation, challenges and uncertainties persist.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“While we refrain from providing a specific magnitude for our recession forecast and acknowledge the possibility of inaccuracies or outright error, we maintain our contention that the US will enter an economic recession by September 2024.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“Spots of price momentum in the September CPI support the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and raise the possibility that even now policy rates are insufficiently restrictive.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“As social scientists we remain alert for and open to cogent, economically-sound and well-reasoned hypotheses pertaining to the current state of the economy. Presently, though, our expectation of a US recession on or before August 2024 remains undeterred.” ~Peter C. Earle
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