Articles from Aaron Nathans
Our Polina Vlasenko was prominently featured in this story by the International Business Times on the January jobs report released on Friday.
The author, Owen Davis, quotes Vlasenko as saying the positive employment numbers probably show a durable trend. But she adds that there’s a reason wages haven’t been growing at a faster clip.
We like to keep our eye on corporate earnings reports for a simple reason: Earnings results can influence a company’s decision on hiring or firing, which impacts spending and the economy. So during a winter where we’ve noted that economic growth is somewhat fragile, we are looking for signs of softness in earnings reports, which could be a sign of further problems to come. This morning, our senior research fellow Bob Hughes said he’s been somewhat reassured by what he’s seen so far.
The American Institute for Economic Research forecasts a relatively low risk of recession in the months ahead, with consumers driving growth, according to the new January edition of Business Conditions Monthly, out this week.
But the report, AIER's bird's-eye view of the economy, notes there are mitigating factors in play that are worth keeping an eye on.
Amid good signs like the strong employment report last week, we have also seen some “yellow flag” data sets on the economy in recent weeks. Today, we received more of those indicators that give us reason for pause. Today’s retail sales report was below expectations, as was the data from the Federal Reserve on industrial production. Those follow a rise in initial claims for unemployment insurance claims yesterday.
This institute has long been known for its work in identifying turning points in the economy, including predicting recessions. And we have a pretty good track record in that regard since we started studying business cycles in 1953. But such work requires vigilance, and changing with the times as necessary.
It appears to defy economic logic: Large numbers of American oil rigs have gone idle, and thousands of oil workers have lost their jobs. Nevertheless, the price of gas has stayed low. Even with far fewer working rigs, production remains only slightly off its peak, and inventories are at their highest point in recent memory.
The economy will enter the election of year of 2016 with good momentum, and there are a number of reasons to believe it will continue to improve, according to the new edition of Business Conditions Monthly, out today from the American Institute for Economic Research.
There are also two main factors that could present obstacles to that continued growth, said Bob Hughes, senior research fellow at AIER, and the lead author of the report.
Figuring out how much money to save for retirement is only the first step. How much can you reasonably spend per year? The answer, says Research Fellow Luke Delorme, is as unique as the retiree.
The American Institute for Economic Research has created a new retirement withdrawal calculator that lets retirees consider several important factors that will affect how much you should spend each year.