A Persistent Delusion

Research Reports - 12/01/2008

Article 1: A Persistent Delusion

Recent Wall Street developments seem to underscore the apparently growing distance between economic/financial fundamentals—including business-cycle conditions and corporate performance—and the bullmarket enthusiasm that propelled the common-stock indexes to near record highs even in the face of deteriorating business conditions. It may be useful at this juncture to recall AIER’s long-held views in respect to predictions of short-term movements in the prices of common stocks.

Article 2: Business Cycle Conditions

Economic activity continues to contract in the manufacturing sector, the employment situation is worsening, and housing is still in a deep slump. How extraordinarily long this recession will last remains to be seen.

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