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– May 16, 2016

With our Leaders index holding below the critical threshold of 50 for the second month in a row, AIER researchers judge the risk of recession to be elevated and have edged closer to calling one. However, a combination of the Leaders not weakening further and some potentially positive signs that aren’t reflected in our model justifies maintaining a cautious outlook instead. Also, our model uses data that may be revised in coming months, which could alter the signals from individual indicators. So we believe it is prudent to wait until more information becomes available before asserting that a recession is probable.

 

 

 

Next/Previous Section:
1.Overview
2. Economy
3. Inflation
4. Policy
5. Investing
6. Pulling It All Together/Appendix

BCM_May2016

AIER Staff

Founded in 1933, the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) is one of the oldest and most respected nonpartisan economic research and advocacy organizations in the country. With a global reach and influence, AIER is dedicated to developing and promoting the ideas of pure freedom and private governance by combining advanced economic research with accessible media outreach and educational programming to cultivate a better, broader understanding of the fundamental principles that enable peace and prosperity around the world.

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