With the year’s midpoint approaching, we turn our attention to the outlook for the second half of 2016. Analysts and investors are likely to vacillate between two narratives that seem to be mutually exclusive: weakness and strength. In a slow-growth environment, periods of weakness are likely to renew fears of recession, while spurts of strength should rekindle debate about rising price pressures, a less accommodative Federal Reserve policy, a tightening labor market, and rising wages (Chart 1). These two narratives will be buffeted about within the context of the election season.
Next/Previous Section:
1.Overview
2. Economy
3. Inflation
4. Policy
5. Investing
6. Pulling It All Together/Appendix
It’s been said that the only constant in life is change. That idea certainly holds… Read More
The purpose of the AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) is to measure changes in the… Read More
AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.5 percent in August, the second decline in the… Read More
AIER’s leading indicators fell back below neutral in July; second-quarter GDP posted modest gain,… Read More
AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.2 percent in July, partially reversing 0.4 percent decline… Read More
AIER’s Leading Indicators index was unchanged in June, holding at the neutral reading of 50.… Read More
AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.4 percent in June reversing 0.4 percent rise in… Read More
AIER’s Leading Indicators index rose 12 points to neutral reading of 50 in May,… Read More
*AIER is a 501(c)(3) Nonprofit registered in the US under EIN:04-2121305