June Business Conditions Monthly
With the year’s midpoint approaching, we turn our attention to the outlook for the second half of 2016. Analysts and investors are likely to vacillate between two narratives that seem to be mutually exclusive: weakness and strength. In a slow-growth environment, periods of weakness are likely to renew fears of recession, while spurts of strength should rekindle debate about rising price pressures, a less accommodative Federal Reserve policy, a tightening labor market, and rising wages (Chart 1). These two narratives will be buffeted about within the context of the election season.
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1.Overview
2. Economy
3. Inflation
4. Policy
5. Investing
6. Pulling It All Together/Appendix
AIER Staff
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