Inflation Reports

Monday, November 3rd, 2014

In September, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.09 percent after falling 0.20 percent in August. Rising domestic demand in August helped push up the Consumer Price Index Core by 0.14 percent in September, compared to last months’ 0.01 percent increase. However, industrial production has caught up and consumer demand has cooled, suggesting a moderating inflationary climate in coming months. Slowing global economic growth and falling oil prices provide further support for that outlook.

Tuesday, September 30th, 2014

Falling prices caused by an oil surplus are offsetting inflation pressures created by an overall increase in consumer demand and a decline in production.

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2014

As the economy continues its recovery, inflation plods along at a low, positive rate. July saw the broad CPI increase just under 0.1 percent. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also saw modest monthly growth of 0.1 percent. However, labor market tightening and real disposable income growth have increased the upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations. 

Wednesday, July 30th, 2014

Inflation forecasts have tended to capture the general direction and perform best in periods of economic stability.Inflation forecasts have tended to capture the general direction and perform best in periods of economic stability.

Wednesday, June 25th, 2014

The price changes felt by individuals vary depending on lifestyle.

Friday, May 23rd, 2014

A strong dollar helps hold down the prices of imported consumer goods, partially offsetting core consumer services inflation.

Wednesday, April 23rd, 2014

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy ignited inflationary fears, but inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index has remained low for several years. The QE program began in late 2008 as an attempt to stimulate the economy out of recession. Three rounds of quantitative easing have totaled $3.5 trillion.

Monday, March 31st, 2014

Plummeting vacancies in the rental market and increased shelter costs point to an eventual upturn in the general price level. For now, inflation remains persistently low.

Wednesday, February 26th, 2014

Corporate profits as a percentage of GDP are at an all-time high. Commodities prices have decreased over the last two years, while price inflation remains mostly flat.

Monday, January 27th, 2014

AIER coins the term moneyness.

Tuesday, December 24th, 2013

The headline data again suggest next to no change in prices. November actually saw declines across several measures of inflation. A strengthening economy coupled with a sustained influx of money from the Fed has economists shrugging their shoulders and squawking, “Where’s the inflation?”

Thursday, December 12th, 2013

Declines in gasoline, fuel oil, and natural gas held down overall prices. But continued economic growth risks rising prices.

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

According to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics news release, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent in September (seasonally adjusted). What the report did not say is that while overall price levels rose 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, all of that increase was in the last five months. An increase of 1.2 percent in five months is very different from 1.2 percent in 12 months.

Tuesday, October 15th, 2013

Over the last year or so, headline price numbers have been held in check by a weak U.S. economy, slower growth in China, and recession in Europe. However, we can no longer count on a worldwide weakness to limit inflationary pressures.

Monday, September 9th, 2013

July’s 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI) reflects the continued healing of the United States economy following the tough economic challenges of the last nine months.

Monday, August 12th, 2013

With an increase of 1.8 percent year-to-year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent Consumer Price Index paints a picture of tame inflation. But that is more about where we’ve been than where we are going.

Monday, July 8th, 2013

Prices are showing a lot of volatility, with a high variance across goods and wild period-to-period swings in the broad indices. (See chart below.) This is signaling a change in the inflationary environment.

Monday, June 17th, 2013

A temporary decline in oil and gasoline prices became the dominant factor in the economic landscape in the first quarter.