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– December 14, 2015

The 45th president of the United States will be elected in 2016. Along with death and taxes, the one thing we can be sure of is a long and contentious campaign season full of claims and counterclaims. At AIER, our goal is to provide an unbiased and accurate evaluation of the economy. In this issue we present our outlook for the U.S. economy in 2016. Overall, our assessment is that the economy is in relatively good shape though there are a number of risks and uncertainties.

The current expansion began in July 2009, making it 78 months old, well above the average age of post-World War II business cycle upturns. Yet, there are few signs of imbalances or overheating. To the contrary, the economy has yet to regain significant momentum in a number of areas.

While there are important aspects of the economy that we will be watching carefully in 2016 (Table 1), the two most important will be Federal Reserve policy on interest rates and global growth (Chart 1).

Next/Previous Section:
1.Overview

2. Economy

3. Inflation

4. Policy

5. Investing

6. Pulling It All Together/Appendix

BCM_December2015interactive

AIER Staff

Founded in 1933, the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) is one of the oldest and most respected nonpartisan economic research and advocacy organizations in the country. With a global reach and influence, AIER is dedicated to developing and promoting the ideas of pure freedom and private governance by combining advanced economic research with accessible media outreach and educational programming to cultivate a better, broader understanding of the fundamental principles that enable peace and prosperity around the world.

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