Business-Cycle Conditions

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014

An improving economy and favorable financial conditions suggest a positive outlook.

Thursday, May 1st, 2014

Single-family housing recovery at risk from rising interest rates and restricted credit.

Monday, April 7th, 2014

With the spring home-building season approaching, we expect the multi-family segment to be the strongest part of the housing market.

Tuesday, March 4th, 2014

Severe weather has slowed the economy resulting in a drop in our Business Cycle Conditions indicators, but we believe the effects are temporary.

Thursday, February 6th, 2014

Forecasts for global economic growth are rising, providing some upside potential for U.S. exports – but risks remain.

Thursday, January 9th, 2014

AIER’s researchers identify six key areas to watch in 2014.

Tuesday, December 10th, 2013

Strong readings from AIER’s indicators reinforce a positive outlook for the holiday shopping season.

Friday, November 8th, 2013

The latest update to AIER’s indicators of Business-Cycle Conditions suggests economic growth is likely to continue.

Friday, October 25th, 2013

The Federal Reserve surprised market watchers in mid-September by reaffirming its stimulative monetary policy, citing slow progress in the economic recovery.

Monday, September 16th, 2013

Expansion continues, but stagnating personal incomes pose a threat to long-term growth.

Monday, August 26th, 2013

Despite the impact of reduced public spending, the recovery remains intact.

Monday, July 22nd, 2013

Although the economic expansion has slowed, both consumers and producers remain optimistic. In the short run, this optimism means the expansion will continue. It is likely to strengthen later in the year as consumer demand buoys economic activity. 

Monday, June 17th, 2013

The Fed’s latest round of asset purchases was designed to bolster the recovery. It also created a scenario where unwinding could be politically difficult. 

Wednesday, May 1st, 2013

Business Cycle Conditions

May, 2013

by Zinnia Mukherjee

There is a long path ahead. Even today’s healthy economy contains reason for caution. But progress in the housing market is steady.

Monday, April 1st, 2013

Business Cycle Conditions

April 2013

by Steven R. Cunningham and Zinnia Mukherjee

Friday, March 1st, 2013

Business Cycle Conditions

Vol II, no. 3 | March, 2013

by Polina Vlasenko, PhD

Friday, February 1st, 2013

Business Cycle Conditions

Vol. II, no. 2 | February 13, 2013

It may seem sluggish compared to the recent past, but economic growth is right on trend.

by POlina Vlasenko, PhD, Research Fellow

Tuesday, January 29th, 2013

Despite the Fed’s breathtaking increase of base money since the autumn of 2008, the money stock as measured by conventional concepts such as M2 has not increased greatly

Wednesday, January 16th, 2013
In this piece, Mark Thornton tries to solve the riddle:  "Where is the Inflation?" by Mark Thornton
Tuesday, January 1st, 2013

Business Cycle Conditions

Vol. II, no. 1 | January 2013

The data depict an economy that is poised for growth, despite higher taxes, new regulations, and continuing drama in Washington.

by Polina Vlasenko, Ph. D., Research Fellow

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