Business-Cycle Conditions

Thursday, January 3rd, 2019

A drop in the ISM manufacturing new orders index suggests slower growth but payroll processor ADP estimates a surge in private hiring in December.

Saturday, December 8th, 2018

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 155,000 jobs in November. Despite the weak performance, the labor market remains tight.

Thursday, December 6th, 2018

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 60.7 in November. The increase follows the manufacturing report that also posted a gain in November. The two reports suggest slightly faster expansion for the economy last month.

Monday, December 3rd, 2018

 The ISM PMI rose in November with broad-based gains among the components. The results suggest continued expansion for the manufacturing sector.

Thursday, November 29th, 2018

Real disposable income and personal consumption expenditures rose in October suggesting fourth-quarter real GDP growth is off to a strong start.

Wednesday, November 28th, 2018

Sales of new single-family homes fell in October and the inventory of homes for sale rose, driving months’ supply to a seven-year high. With prices and interest rates rising, the outlook for housing is unfavorable.

Tuesday, November 20th, 2018

A drop in new housing permits and a plunge in homebuilder sentiment suggest the outlook for housing remains cautious.

Friday, November 16th, 2018

The manufacturing resurgence continued as output rose 0.3 percent in October, the fifth monthly gain in a row, resulting in an annualized growth rate of 5.0 percent over the period.

Thursday, November 15th, 2018

Retail sales and initial claims data show the economy remains generally healthy. However, uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and broadening global economic risks have the potential to negatively impact the economic expansion.

Friday, November 9th, 2018

Consumer sentiment indicators remain at broadly favorable levels but rising interest rates and accelerating price increases are starting to have an impact.

Thursday, November 8th, 2018

Initial claims remain near a record low as a percentage of the labor force while consumer credit growth slowed in September. Both are positive signs for the economy.

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018
Open jobs in the U.S. were down slightly in September to 7.009 million, just below the record-high 7.293 million in August. Private job openings totaled 6.407 million in September. Overall, the data relating to the labor market continue to show strength.
Friday, November 2nd, 2018

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 250,000 jobs in October and hourly earnings growth accelerated to a 3.1 percent rate, the highest since April 2009. Both are positive signs for the labor market and the economy overall.

Thursday, November 1st, 2018

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered a 57.7 percent reading in October. Despite a small decline, the index remains well above neutral and is a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.

Tuesday, October 30th, 2018

Consumer Confidence rose for the fourth month in a row to 137.9, the highest level since September 2000 and just 6.8 points below the all-time record.

Friday, October 26th, 2018

Real gross domestic product rose at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, driven primarily by strong gains in consumer spending. A positive outlook is further support by the results of the AIER Leading Indicators index, which scored a healthy 88 in September.  

Thursday, October 25th, 2018

New orders for durable goods increased 0.8 percent in September while new orders for core capital goods fell 0.1 percent. Today’s data are generally positive, but core capital-goods orders have been essentially flat over the past two months.

Wednesday, October 24th, 2018

Sales of new single-family homes fell 5.5 percent in September, the fourth decline in a row, while inventory rose for the sixth straight month putting the months’ supply at the highest since 2011. Rising home prices and higher interest rates are likely to weigh on housing activity over coming months and quarters.

Friday, October 19th, 2018

Sales of existing homes fell again in September. The combination of rising home prices and higher interest rates is likely weighing on housing activity, and is likely to restrain activity in the coming months and quarters.

Friday, October 19th, 2018

Modern central banking claims to make the money supply more elastic to stabilize the economy. The rationale says that left to itself, the market economy is unstable. Yet the evidence suggests the opposite: that modern central banking is the main culprit for boom and bust.