Business-Cycle Conditions

Thursday, February 21st, 2019

Durable-goods orders rose in December, but core capital-goods orders fell for the fourth time in the last five months. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.

Friday, February 15th, 2019

Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in January as vehicle assemblies fell 13.7 percent. The weak report continues a string of disappointing economic data and justifies a cautious outlook. However, economic expansion remains the most likely path.

Thursday, February 14th, 2019

Retail sales fell sharply in December, the third decline in the last five months. Broadening weakness in the economy suggests caution is warranted.

Wednesday, February 6th, 2019

The U.S. trade deficit decreased slightly in November reflecting a smaller deficit in goods and a smaller surplus in services. Uncertainty over trade policy could restrain hiring and capital investment for some industries and threaten the broader economic outlook.

Tuesday, February 5th, 2019

Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest still-solid levels of current activity with elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the future.

Thursday, January 31st, 2019

Sales of new single-family homes jumped 16.9 percent in November negating recent weakness, but is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019

Existing-home sales declined in December and are 12.8 percent below the November 2017 peak. Home prices, interest rates, and uncertainty are all contributing to the weakness.

Friday, January 18th, 2019

Manufacturing output surged 1.1 percent for the latest month, pushing the 12-month gain to 3.2 percent and continuing a mild accelerating trend in place since 2016.

Tuesday, January 8th, 2019

Small-business confidence and job openings fell slightly in the latest reports but both remain at high levels, providing some positive support for the economic outlook.

Monday, January 7th, 2019

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 312,000 jobs last month, the largest since February 2018. However, market volatility and uncertainty surrounding trade, fiscal, and monetary policy suggest a cautious view is warranted.

Thursday, January 3rd, 2019

A drop in the ISM manufacturing new orders index suggests slower growth but payroll processor ADP estimates a surge in private hiring in December.

Saturday, December 8th, 2018

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 155,000 jobs in November. Despite the weak performance, the labor market remains tight.

Thursday, December 6th, 2018

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 60.7 in November. The increase follows the manufacturing report that also posted a gain in November. The two reports suggest slightly faster expansion for the economy last month.

Monday, December 3rd, 2018

 The ISM PMI rose in November with broad-based gains among the components. The results suggest continued expansion for the manufacturing sector.

Thursday, November 29th, 2018

Real disposable income and personal consumption expenditures rose in October suggesting fourth-quarter real GDP growth is off to a strong start.

Wednesday, November 28th, 2018

Sales of new single-family homes fell in October and the inventory of homes for sale rose, driving months’ supply to a seven-year high. With prices and interest rates rising, the outlook for housing is unfavorable.

Tuesday, November 20th, 2018

A drop in new housing permits and a plunge in homebuilder sentiment suggest the outlook for housing remains cautious.

Friday, November 16th, 2018

The manufacturing resurgence continued as output rose 0.3 percent in October, the fifth monthly gain in a row, resulting in an annualized growth rate of 5.0 percent over the period.

Thursday, November 15th, 2018

Retail sales and initial claims data show the economy remains generally healthy. However, uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and broadening global economic risks have the potential to negatively impact the economic expansion.

Friday, November 9th, 2018

Consumer sentiment indicators remain at broadly favorable levels but rising interest rates and accelerating price increases are starting to have an impact.

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