Business-Cycle Conditions

Tuesday, May 14th, 2019

Small-business confidence rose in April, and expectations are generally upbeat, but labor shortages are a major concern.

Wednesday, May 8th, 2019

Retail vehicle sales slowed in April but remain in the recent range of 16 to 18 million annually. Consumer credit rose despite a drop in credit card debt.

Tuesday, May 7th, 2019

Private job openings in the United States totaled 6.800 million in March. The labor market is showing renewed strength, supporting personal incomes, consumer confidence, and future consumer spending.

Friday, May 3rd, 2019

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000 in April. Two strong monthly gains following a disappointing increase in February shows the labor market remains healthy and will likely ease fears of recession.

Wednesday, May 1st, 2019

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its lowest reading since November 2016 and extends an eight-month trend of decelerating growth. Mixed economic data continue to support a high degree of caution amid slow economic expansion.

Monday, April 29th, 2019

A strong headline gain in first-quarter growth in real gross domestic product masked the poor performance of domestic demand.

Thursday, April 25th, 2019

Durable-goods orders posted a solid gain in March, led by record-high orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft. Today’s reports suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019

Home sales have rebound in recent months. However, there is little evidence to support an expectation for a significant acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.

Thursday, April 18th, 2019

Retail-sales and initial-claims data show the economy may be gaining some momentum after a patch of weakness. However, continued uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and ongoing risks in the global economy remain significant concerns.

Friday, April 12th, 2019

Consumer sentiment fell slightly in early April but remains at broadly favorable levels. Caution regarding the outlook is still warranted but the trends for the most recent data appear marginally more favorable.

Thursday, April 11th, 2019

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since 1969, providing compelling evidence that the recent period of weakness may be passing.

Friday, April 5th, 2019

Amid several months of mixed results in economic data, rebounding job creation in March helps tip the scales in favor of cautious optimism for continued economic expansion.

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2019

Nonmanufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in March. The results are consistent with a range of economic data that point to uneven growth, but they do not suggest a recession is imminent.

Monday, April 1st, 2019

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index paints a modestly positive picture of the manufacturing sector in March, offsetting the weak report on February retail sales. The outlook is for ongoing economic expansion, but heightened caution is warranted.

Monday, April 1st, 2019

Retail sales fell again in February, the second decline in the last three months. A string of mixed economic reports suggests caution is warranted.

Friday, March 29th, 2019

Consumer sentiment and new-home sales are showing gains, but the broad economic picture remains mixed. Continued expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.

Thursday, March 28th, 2019

Real gross domestic product grew at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, with real private domestic demand rising 2.6 percent. High levels of uncertainty surrounding economic policy and global economic conditions combined with mixed economic data raise doubts about the current expansion.

Tuesday, March 26th, 2019

Consumer confidence fell in March but remains at a level consistent with economic expansion. Housing activity continues to weaken with no evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future.

Monday, March 25th, 2019

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index posted its third negative result in a row, but the index remains above levels historically associated with either recession or significant price increases.

Thursday, March 21st, 2019

The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey was generally favorable in March with respondents were more upbeat about current conditions but somewhat less optimistic about the future. 

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