Business-Cycle Conditions

Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019

Home sales have rebound in recent months. However, there is little evidence to support an expectation for a significant acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.

Thursday, April 18th, 2019

Retail-sales and initial-claims data show the economy may be gaining some momentum after a patch of weakness. However, continued uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and ongoing risks in the global economy remain significant concerns.

Friday, April 12th, 2019

Consumer sentiment fell slightly in early April but remains at broadly favorable levels. Caution regarding the outlook is still warranted but the trends for the most recent data appear marginally more favorable.

Thursday, April 11th, 2019

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since 1969, providing compelling evidence that the recent period of weakness may be passing.

Friday, April 5th, 2019

Amid several months of mixed results in economic data, rebounding job creation in March helps tip the scales in favor of cautious optimism for continued economic expansion.

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2019

Nonmanufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in March. The results are consistent with a range of economic data that point to uneven growth, but they do not suggest a recession is imminent.

Monday, April 1st, 2019

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index paints a modestly positive picture of the manufacturing sector in March, offsetting the weak report on February retail sales. The outlook is for ongoing economic expansion, but heightened caution is warranted.

Monday, April 1st, 2019

Retail sales fell again in February, the second decline in the last three months. A string of mixed economic reports suggests caution is warranted.

Friday, March 29th, 2019

Consumer sentiment and new-home sales are showing gains, but the broad economic picture remains mixed. Continued expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.

Thursday, March 28th, 2019

Real gross domestic product grew at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, with real private domestic demand rising 2.6 percent. High levels of uncertainty surrounding economic policy and global economic conditions combined with mixed economic data raise doubts about the current expansion.

Tuesday, March 26th, 2019

Consumer confidence fell in March but remains at a level consistent with economic expansion. Housing activity continues to weaken with no evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future.

Monday, March 25th, 2019

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index posted its third negative result in a row, but the index remains above levels historically associated with either recession or significant price increases.

Thursday, March 21st, 2019

The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey was generally favorable in March with respondents were more upbeat about current conditions but somewhat less optimistic about the future. 

Friday, March 15th, 2019

Consumer sentiment improved in early March, maintaining a generally high level by historical comparison. The tight labor market remains one of the key supports for consumer sentiment.

Thursday, March 14th, 2019

New single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent in January. Slowing sales and rising inventory are weighing on new construction, suggesting new-home construction is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth in coming quarters.

Monday, March 11th, 2019

Retail sales growth bounced back in January, but economic data continue to be mixed, suggesting a heightened degree of caution for the economic outlook.


Friday, March 8th, 2019

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added just 20,000 jobs in February, the smallest monthly gain since September 2017. Combined with other recent disappointing economic data, the report raises concerns about the durability of the economic expansion.

Tuesday, March 5th, 2019

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 59.7 in February. The increase was led by strong performances by the activity index and the new orders index. The report suggests continued expansion for the economy last month.

Friday, March 1st, 2019

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the Institute for Supply Management registered a 54.2 percent reading in February. Despite a small decline, the index remains above neutral—a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.

Thursday, February 28th, 2019

Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, putting the calendar year growth at 2.9 percent, the fastest pace since 2015. Consumer prices rose 1.5 percent in the quarter, putting the calendar year increase at 2.0 percent, the fastest since 2011, and the seventh year in a row with a pace of two percent or less.