Business-Cycle Conditions

Thursday, July 25th, 2019

Home sales rebounded in June. However, little evidence supports an expectation of a significant, sustained acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.

Thursday, July 25th, 2019

Durable-goods orders rose in June, and core capital-goods orders are holding at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but policy uncertainty remains a risk.

Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019

Despite falling mortgage rates, existing-home sales fell and home-price increases decelerated in May.

Tuesday, July 16th, 2019

Retail sales and industrial production improved in June, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.

Friday, July 12th, 2019

A recession could be coming tomorrow, or it could be coming in 10 years. The point is, we don’t know. 

Tuesday, July 9th, 2019

Small-business confidence and job openings eased back but remain at high levels. Both are positive signs for the economy despite the high level of uncertainty caused by erratic and uncertain policy.

Friday, July 5th, 2019

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 224,000 jobs in June, all but guaranteeing a record-tying expansion, but uncertain leadership and policy remain significant risks.

Wednesday, July 3rd, 2019

A variety of data released today suggest continued economic expansion. Despite concerns over trade policy, escalating trade wars, and global economic growth that are creating significant uncertainty, the outlook is cautiously optimistic.

Monday, July 1st, 2019

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its third straight decline and lowest reading since October 2016. Mixed economic data continue to suggest a high degree of caution amid slow economic expansion.

Friday, June 28th, 2019

Consumer sentiment fell slightly in June but remains at a high level while income and spending continued to grow in May. Tariffs and trade wars remain a significant risk.

Wednesday, June 26th, 2019

New orders for durable goods decreased in May while core capital-goods orders rose; both appear to be plateauing amid rising uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.

Tuesday, June 18th, 2019

Single-family housing activity continues to weaken with little evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future, but multifamily housing activity remains robust.

Friday, June 14th, 2019

Gains in retail sales and industrial production in May are a positive for the economy, but trade wars are impacting consumer attitudes and represent a threat to the economic outlook.

Tuesday, June 11th, 2019

Small-business confidence rose in May while job openings remain at historically high levels in April. Both are positive signs for the economy despite the high level of uncertainty caused by erratic trade policy.

Friday, June 7th, 2019

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 75,000 jobs in May, pulling the four-month average down to 124,000. Employment is a coincident indicator and no one knows what will happen over the next year, but the weakness over the last four months suggests caution, not panic.

Wednesday, June 5th, 2019

Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest continued economic expansion with elevated levels of concern over rising tariffs and shortages of labor.

Tuesday, June 4th, 2019

Auto sales rose in May, and weekly data suggest consumer spending is solid. However, factory orders were weak in April. Currently, there is little hard data to suggest a recession is imminent. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

Friday, May 31st, 2019

Consumer attitudes were generally upbeat in May, supported by a strong labor market, but escalating trade wars and higher tariffs are having a significant negative impact.

Thursday, May 30th, 2019

Initial claims remain very low in May, but revised data still show a poor performance for private domestic demand in the first quarter. Though economic data are still somewhat mixed, some recent positive signs are emerging.

Thursday, May 23rd, 2019

New-home sales fell in April, and home construction is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth, but the strong labor market continues to provide a solid foundation for continued expansion.