– January 19, 2011
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January 2010: Percent of Leaders Expanding Increases to 90; Cyclical Score of Leaders Increases to 62
      
Despite improvements in the labor market and a rise in industrial production, record breaking debt continues to hold back the recovery.

AIER’s primary leading indicators continue to suggest that a recovery is likely. The percentage of leaders expanding increased from 82 last month to 90 this month (nine out of ten indicators with a discernable trend). The cyclical score of the leaders, which is based on a separate, purely mathematical analysis, increased from 57 last month to 62. For each of these measures, a value above 50 indicates that an expansion is more probable than a contraction.

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