Important Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Drastic Growth in 2020

– November 20, 2020

“The swift growth of Bitcoin signals a number of important financial milestones as well as warning signs. Signals that not only lend some support to the cryptocurrency’s value but also provide important insight into our current state of financial affairs.” ~ Ethan Yang

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FedCoin Revisited

– November 19, 2020

“We don’t know whether the Fed would take steps to eliminate cash or impose negative rates on FedCoin balances. We don’t know how it would go about intermediating funds. But such speculations should make one thing clear: there are risks. At the least, we should develop strong institutional checks before permitting the Fed to plow ahead.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky

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The Complexity of Monetary Policy and the Effectiveness of the Fed’s Commitment to a Higher Rate of Inflation

– November 19, 2020

“A better policy would be to bring greater clarity to the structure and effects of the Fed’s policy framework so as to improve the quality of investor expectations. So long as investors feel that they might as well be reading tea leaves to predict Fed policy, the Fed will struggle to anchor investor expectations of nominal and real income growth.” ~ James L. Caton

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Jerome Powell

Filling Fed Vacancies Would Leave Biden with Few Options to Replace Powell

– November 18, 2020

“Biden’s only other play would be to lean on historical norms. Fed Chairs rarely stick around to serve out their terms as mere Governors when they are not reappointed to the top spot. Janet Yellen resigned in 2018, when Trump replaced her as Chair with Powell, despite having nearly six years left on her term as Governor. Biden might hope Powell will follow suit.” ~ William J. Luther

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The Fed Has A Commitment Problem

– November 12, 2020

“The whole point of a central bank is competently administering monetary policy. Right now, the Fed is failing at this basic task.” ~ Alexander W. Salter

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dollar, financial crimes

FinCEN and Fed Proposal Means Less Privacy, More Exclusion

– October 29, 2020

“It could very well be that the benefits of reducing the threshold from $3,000 to $250 exceed the costs, defined as the sum of the administrative expenses, lost privacy, and increased financial exclusion. But all of these costs must be included in the final calculation. Not just some of them. As it is, FinCEN and the Fed have not done a sound accounting for their proposal.” ~ J.P. Koning

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Does Anyone Trust the Fed?

– October 29, 2020

“Until the Fed acts to build trust and credibility with the public, its policy of Average Inflation Targeting will have little effect on inflation or economic activity.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan

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QE Goes Global

– October 25, 2020

“In a fiat currency world the limits of central bank balance sheet expansion remain unclear, but, as the world economy recovers from the largest economic shock in generations, those limits will become clear. For the large, DM, central banks, these EM limits will be noted with care. Japan has been the petri dish of global monetary policy for the last two decades; now it is the turn of EM central banks to test the willing suspension of disbelief of global financial markets.” ~ Colin Lloyd

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Average Inflation Targeting Risks Further Politicizing the Fed

– October 15, 2020

“Perhaps the Fed’s move to average inflation targeting won’t make much of a difference. But it nonetheless risks further politicizing the Fed. To the extent that it means the Fed will engage in even more credit allocation and Congress will take a more active role in guiding those credit allocation discussions, there is cause for concern.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky

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Professor Sunetra Gupta on the Perils of Disease Modelling

– October 9, 2020

What’s extraordinary to consider is how the principles she presents here apply equally to economics, sociology, history, and political theory. Gupta writes here like the F.A. Hayek of epidemiology. But the topic of the day is public health and here are her extraordinary observations, ending in a grave warning.

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Debt or Taxes

– September 30, 2020

“At the present juncture, developed country government bond yields are more likely to fall than rise. Fiscal spending will be financed by deferred taxation, the repayment of today’s (and probably tomorrow’s) obligations will be bequeathed to our children and grandchildren. Digital taxes, taxation on wealth and financial transaction fees may creep higher at the margins, along with higher taxes on higher earners, but debt is the least painful solution to the fiscal needs of the present.” ~ Colin Lloyd

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federal reserve

The Fed Can Generate Higher Inflation

– September 24, 2020

“A lack of concern for fiscal discipline by both the U.S. Treasury Secretary and a call for persistent, near zero rates by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve suggests that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury will act in concert to make the new inflation target a reality. It is not a question of whether the inflation rate will pass 2 percent, but when.” ~ James L. Caton

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