Retail sales

Weak Results for Retail Sales in February

– March 17, 2020

Retail sales were broadly weak in February and are likely to show significant weakness as the effects of quarantines and lockdowns materialize, increasing the risk of recession later this year.

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NY Fed Manufacturing

New York Fed Manufacturing Survey Plunges in March

– March 16, 2020

New York Fed Survey shows a sharp drop in business conditions for local manufacturers, likely a result of COVID-19.

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NFIB

Small-Business Optimism Remained High in February but COVID-19 Increases Uncertainty

– March 10, 2020

Small-business confidence remained robust in February; labor-market issues are the top concern.

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Employment report

Labor Market Shows Broad Strength Prior to COVID-19 Outbreak

– March 6, 2020

The U.S labor market had strong momentum prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, however the severity of disruptions to economic activity is still unknown. Extreme caution is warranted.

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ISM Services NMI

ISM Surveys: The Calm Before the Potential Storms

– March 4, 2020

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in February. However, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak are still growing and represent a very substantial risk to the economic outlook.

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ISM PMI

Manufacturing-Sector Looks Weak Again in February

– March 2, 2020

The ISM PMI weakened in February suggesting a delay in any significant turnaround for manufacturing.

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GDP

Revised Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Growth at 2.1 Percent

– February 27, 2020

Revised real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.

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Durable goods orders

Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Remain in a Flat Trend

– February 27, 2020

Capital-goods orders remain in a flat trend, but at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.

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Consumer confidence

Consumer Confidence Holds Steady While Home Prices Move Higher

– February 25, 2020

Consumer confidence remained high in February, supported by a positive outlook for the economy and labor market. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.

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Existing home sales

Existing-Home Sales Remain Range Bound; Inventory Remains Tight

– February 21, 2020

Existing-home sales fell 1.3 percent in January and remain in a broad flat trend. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.

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housing starts and permits

New-Home Construction Falls While Permits Rise in January

– February 19, 2020

Housing starts and permits were mixed in January; significant and sustained gains over coming quarters seem unlikely.

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manufacturing

Positive Surprise for Manufacturing

– February 18, 2020

The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests the manufacturing sector may be rebounding but the outlook remains uncertain.

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