Weak Results for Retail Sales in February
Retail sales were broadly weak in February and are likely to show significant weakness as the effects of quarantines and lockdowns materialize, increasing the risk of recession later this year.
READ MORE
New York Fed Manufacturing Survey Plunges in March
New York Fed Survey shows a sharp drop in business conditions for local manufacturers, likely a result of COVID-19.
READ MORE
Small-Business Optimism Remained High in February but COVID-19 Increases Uncertainty
Small-business confidence remained robust in February; labor-market issues are the top concern.
READ MORE
Labor Market Shows Broad Strength Prior to COVID-19 Outbreak
The U.S labor market had strong momentum prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, however the severity of disruptions to economic activity is still unknown. Extreme caution is warranted.
READ MORE
ISM Surveys: The Calm Before the Potential Storms
The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in February. However, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak are still growing and represent a very substantial risk to the economic outlook.
READ MORE
Manufacturing-Sector Looks Weak Again in February
The ISM PMI weakened in February suggesting a delay in any significant turnaround for manufacturing.
READ MORE
Revised Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Growth at 2.1 Percent
Revised real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.
READ MORE
Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Remain in a Flat Trend
Capital-goods orders remain in a flat trend, but at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.
READ MORE
Consumer Confidence Holds Steady While Home Prices Move Higher
Consumer confidence remained high in February, supported by a positive outlook for the economy and labor market. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.
READ MORE
Existing-Home Sales Remain Range Bound; Inventory Remains Tight
Existing-home sales fell 1.3 percent in January and remain in a broad flat trend. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
READ MORE
New-Home Construction Falls While Permits Rise in January
Housing starts and permits were mixed in January; significant and sustained gains over coming quarters seem unlikely.
READ MORE
Positive Surprise for Manufacturing
The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests the manufacturing sector may be rebounding but the outlook remains uncertain.
READ MORE
