Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Business-Cycle Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Collapses Amid Massive Job Loss

– April 9, 2020

The unprecedented economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak is crushing the labor market and consumer sentiment.

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NFIB
Business-Cycle Conditions

Historic Drop in Small-Business Optimism As COVID-19 Spreads

– April 8, 2020

Small-business confidence plunged in March as COVID-19 stifled expectations.

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auto sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Auto Sales Plunge in March

– April 6, 2020

Auto sales plunged in March providing more evidence of the dramatic impact of COVID-19 and supporting the near-certainty that the U.S. has entered recession.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Recession May Have Begun for the U.S. Economy

– April 3, 2020

U.S. nonfarm payrolls plunged by 701,000 jobs in March, and with record-shattering initial claims suggesting more job losses to come, a U.S. recession is a near certainty.

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Initial claims
Business-Cycle Conditions

Unemployment Claims Surpass Great Recession

– April 2, 2020

The unprecedented economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak is crushing the labor market.

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ISM PMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

Manufacturing-Sector Contracts in March; Recession Probability Rising

– April 1, 2020

The ISM PMI dropped below neutral in March suggesting a contraction in manufacturing and rising probability of recession.

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Consumer Confidence
Business-Cycle Conditions

COVID-19 Is Hurting Consumer Attitudes

– March 31, 2020

Consumer attitudes deteriorated sharply in March and are likely to show further declines in coming months as layoffs rise and economic activity plunges.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Business-Cycle Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Fell in March with More Declines Likely

– March 27, 2020

Consumer sentiment fell sharply in March and is likely to show further declines in coming months as layoffs rise and the economy slows.

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Layoffs
Business-Cycle Conditions

Job Losses Show Unprecedented Surge

– March 26, 2020

The unprecedented economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak is hitting economic statistics.

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Layoffs
Business-Cycle Conditions

Layoffs Expected to Surge

– March 23, 2020

The economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak will likely be unprecedented.

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Initial claims
Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims Jump and Manufacturing New Orders Fall

– March 19, 2020

Initial claims jumped and manufacturing new orders fell in the latest reports as the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on economic activity spread.

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Housing starts
Business-Cycle Conditions

Falling Mortgage Rates May Support Housing Activity…Eventually

– March 18, 2020

Near-record low mortgage rates may provide some support for housing activity eventually. However, disruptions from COVID-19 are likely to dominate economic activity for March and the second quarter.

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