Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Business-Cycle Conditions

Manufacturing Sector Recovery Continued in August

– September 1, 2020

The ISM Manufacturing survey suggests activity continues to recover from the dramatic lockdown-related plunge, but the survey also suggests labor dynamics remain weak.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Existing-Home Sales Surge in July, Extending Sharp Recovery

– August 21, 2020

Existing-home sales jumped again in July, making housing a bright spot for the economy, but the outlook remains highly uncertain.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise as Restrictions Sustain Uncertainty

– August 20, 2020

Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose in the latest week and unemployment remains very high, suggesting complete economic recovery may be a long way off.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Home Construction Fully Recovers from COVID-19

– August 18, 2020

Housing starts and permits rose in July. The outlook is supported by easing lockdown restrictions, low mortgage rates, and rebounding builder confidence but demand remains uncertain.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Pandemic Lockdown Distortions: Manufacturing Pulls Back While Housing Gains

– August 17, 2020

Distortions to economic activity are becoming more differentiated as lockdowns are partially eased and consumers adjust to current conditions.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Lack of Confidence in Government Stifles Consumer Sentiment Recovery

– August 14, 2020

Policy uncertainty is smothering the recovery in consumer sentiment, putting the economic rebound at risk.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Manufacturing Activity Remains Well Below Pre-Lockdown Levels

– August 14, 2020

A manufacturing rebound continued in July, but activity remains well below pre-lockdown levels. Heightened uncertainty about COVID-19 and future government policies threaten the recovery.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Retail Spending Hits New High in July but Gains Are Not Consistent Among Categories

– August 14, 2020

Retail sales rose to a new high in July, recovering from the policy-induced economic coma but rising uncertainty is a significant risk to future growth.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Drop Below One Million

– August 13, 2020

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell in the latest week but unemployment remains very high, suggesting complete economic recovery may be a long way off.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Drop in Small-Business Optimism Reflects Renewed Uncertainty

– August 11, 2020

Small-business confidence fell in July as rising COVID-19 cases, political turmoil, and persistent consumer apprehension smother hopes for a rapid rebound.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Payrolls Grew By 1.8 Million in July But the Pace of Recovery Slowed, Raising Concerns

– August 7, 2020

Nine million private U.S. jobs have been recovered over the last three months, less than half the 21 million lost during government shutdowns; the outlook remains extremely uncertain.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Positive Signs for the Manufacturing Sector but Employment Remains Weak

– August 3, 2020

The ISM Manufacturing survey showed another gain in July as orders and production expanded but the survey suggests labor dynamics remain weak.

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