Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Business-Cycle Conditions

Drop in Small-Business Optimism Reflects Renewed Uncertainty

– August 11, 2020

Small-business confidence fell in July as rising COVID-19 cases, political turmoil, and persistent consumer apprehension smother hopes for a rapid rebound.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Payrolls Grew By 1.8 Million in July But the Pace of Recovery Slowed, Raising Concerns

– August 7, 2020

Nine million private U.S. jobs have been recovered over the last three months, less than half the 21 million lost during government shutdowns; the outlook remains extremely uncertain.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Positive Signs for the Manufacturing Sector but Employment Remains Weak

– August 3, 2020

The ISM Manufacturing survey showed another gain in July as orders and production expanded but the survey suggests labor dynamics remain weak.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Suggest Labor Market Recovery is Faltering

– July 30, 2020

Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose again, suggesting the emerging recovery may be at risk.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

U.S. Economy Posts Record Decline During Lockdowns

– July 30, 2020

The U.S. economy suffered a historic contraction in the second quarter. Uncertainty, confusion, and risk aversion among consumers and businesses may put the recovery at risk.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Reopening Boosts Consumer Optimism, But COVID Dampens the Outlook

– July 28, 2020

Consumer attitudes declined in July as resurging COVID-19 cases dampened the outlook more than reopening boosted views of current conditions.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

New Durable-Goods Orders Rise Again in June

– July 27, 2020

Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods rose again in June, showing that easing government restrictions should lead to economic recovery, but resurging COVID-19 increases risks.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

New Home Sales Jump to the Highest Level Since 2007

– July 24, 2020

Sales of new single-family homes rose to a 12-year high as low mortgage rates support increased demand.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise as Continuing Claims Fall

– July 23, 2020

Labor market indicators are becoming mixed, suggesting the emerging recovery may be at risk.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Existing-Home Sales Rebound in June; Inventory Remains Tight

– July 22, 2020

Existing-home sales rebounded in June, but the outlook remains highly uncertain.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Shrank Again but Remain High

– July 16, 2020

New unemployment claims slowed again but remain high. Other labor market data as well as broader activity measures look more positive but surging new COVID-19 cases could derail growth.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Retail Spending Returned to Trend in June

– July 16, 2020

Retail sales posted another big gain in June, further recovering from the policy-induced economic coma but rising new COVID-19 cases are a risk to future growth.

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