Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Business-Cycle Conditions

New Single-Family Home Sales Remain Strong in October

– November 25, 2020

“The single-family housing market remains a bright spot for the economy, supported by low interest rates and strong demand.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Durable-Goods Orders Post Sixth Consecutive Gain

– November 25, 2020

“Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods rose in October, with some categories at new record highs but renewed government restrictions are threatening the outlook.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rose Slightly for A Second Week

– November 25, 2020

“Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose again in the latest week, pushing the four-week average to the first increase since July 25, a worrying sign for the economy” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Consumers Grow Less Optimistic About the Short-Term Outlook in November

– November 24, 2020

“Consumer attitudes weakened in November, particularly for short-term expectations. Pessimism about jobs and the economy may restrain consumer spending and harm the economic recovery.” – Robert Hughes

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Existing-home sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Existing-Home Sales Rise to the Highest Level in More Than A Decade

– November 19, 2020

“Existing-home sales rose again in October, making housing a bright spot for the economy, but the outlook remains highly uncertain.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rose Slightly as New Restrictions Emerged

– November 19, 2020

“Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly in the latest week, the first increase since October 10. Renewed government restrictions pose a threat to economic recovery.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Single-Family Home Constructions Stays Strong in October

– November 18, 2020

“Single-family housing continues to be one of the strongest areas of the economy, supported by low mortgage rates and increased demand.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Industrial Output Posted A Solid Gain in October

– November 17, 2020

“A manufacturing rebound continued in October, but reinstated government restrictions could delay the economic recovery.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Retail Spending Hits A Record in October but Breadth Narrows

– November 17, 2020

“Retail sales hit another record high in October, but recent developments regarding Covid-19 and reactionary government policies remain significant risks to economic recovery.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Election and Resurging Virus Drag Down Consumer Sentiment

– November 13, 2020

“Consumer sentiment fell in early November following the election and a resurgence in Covid-19 infections. Combined with renewed restrictions, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Small-Business Survey Shows Mixed Expectations in October

– November 10, 2020

“Small-business confidence was unchanged in October, but details of the survey suggest a mixed outlook.” – Robert Hughes

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Private Payrolls Rose By 906,000, But Are Still Down 9 Million Since February

– November 6, 2020

“Private payrolls added 906,000 in October, but ongoing restrictions and a large number of unemployed suggest the recovery remains highly uncertain.” – Robert Hughes

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