durablegoods

Durable-Goods Orders Rose in December on Strength in Consumer Durables

– February 21, 2019

Durable-goods orders rose in December, but core capital-goods orders fell for the fourth time in the last five months. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.

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carassembly

Manufacturing Output Retreated in January as Vehicle Production Plunged

– February 15, 2019

Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in January as vehicle assemblies fell 13.7 percent. The weak report continues a string of disappointing economic data and justifies a cautious outlook. However, economic expansion remains the most likely path.

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Broad Weakness in Retail Sales in December

– February 14, 2019

Retail sales fell sharply in December, the third decline in the last five months. Broadening weakness in the economy suggests caution is warranted.

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stockmarket

The U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in November

– February 6, 2019

The U.S. trade deficit decreased slightly in November reflecting a smaller deficit in goods and a smaller surplus in services. Uncertainty over trade policy could restrain hiring and capital investment for some industries and threaten the broader economic outlook.

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stockmarket

Purchasing Managers Suggest Solid Growth but Lingering Concerns in January

– February 5, 2019

Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest still-solid levels of current activity with elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the future.

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stockmarket

New Single-Family Home Sales Bounce Back in November

– January 31, 2019

Sales of new single-family homes jumped 16.9 percent in November negating recent weakness, but is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.

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stockmarket

Existing Single-Family Home Sales Fall Again in December

– January 23, 2019

Existing-home sales declined in December and are 12.8 percent below the November 2017 peak. Home prices, interest rates, and uncertainty are all contributing to the weakness.

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stockmarket

Manufacturing Output Surged, Boosting Utilization to a 4-Year High

– January 18, 2019

Manufacturing output surged 1.1 percent for the latest month, pushing the 12-month gain to 3.2 percent and continuing a mild accelerating trend in place since 2016.

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stockmarket

Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings Decline Slightly

– January 8, 2019

Small-business confidence and job openings fell slightly in the latest reports but both remain at high levels, providing some positive support for the economic outlook.

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stockmarket

Private Payrolls Jumped in December and Wage Growth Accelerated

– January 7, 2019

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 312,000 jobs last month, the largest since February 2018. However, market volatility and uncertainty surrounding trade, fiscal, and monetary policy suggest a cautious view is warranted.

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stockmarket

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Points to Slower Growth in December

– January 3, 2019

A drop in the ISM manufacturing new orders index suggests slower growth but payroll processor ADP estimates a surge in private hiring in December.

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stockmarket

November Jobs Report Disappoints

– December 8, 2018

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 155,000 jobs in November. Despite the weak performance, the labor market remains tight.

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