Consumers Restrain Spending in September

– October 16, 2019

Retail sales were weak in September raising concern about the strength of the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

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Job Openings Decline in August, Continuing Downward Trend

– October 9, 2019

Private-sector job openings have fallen in six of the past nine months, suggesting that erratic and incoherent policy may be undermining confidence in the economic outlook.

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Small-Business Optimism Faded A Bit in September, But Remains High

– October 8, 2019

Small-business confidence remained solid in September, but labor shortages and policy uncertainty are major concerns.

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A Weak September Jobs Report Raises Concern

– October 4, 2019

U.S. payrolls added 136,000 jobs in September. The report raises concerns that escalating trade wars and inconsistent, incoherent policies are threatening the economic expansion.

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How to Prepare Yourself Financially for Recession

– October 3, 2019

Carrying an umbrella even when it doesn’t rain is a small price to pay.

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ISM Manufacturing Index Remains Below Neutral in September

– October 1, 2019

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in September, extending the weak results from the previous report. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.

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Why the U.S. Yield Curve Reliably Predicts U.S. Recessions

– September 30, 2019

Over the past half century in the U.S., yield-curve inversions have been important because they’ve reliably predicted all seven U.S. recessions.

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Recession Doesn’t Equal Crisis

– September 28, 2019

The specific conditions that predicated the 2008 financial crisis are not in place this time around.

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New Home Sales Rose in August on Gains in the South and West

– September 25, 2019

Sales of new single-family homes rose in August, but regional performances vary widely. Still, the gain is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.

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Consumer Confidence Falls in September

– September 24, 2019

Consumer attitudes were off but still generally upbeat in September, supported by a strong labor market. Incoherent policies and on-going trade wars could hurt attitudes and consumer spending in the future.

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Industrial Production Rose in August but the Trend Remains Weak

– September 17, 2019

Industrial production rose in August, but the trend remains weak. Tariffs, erratic policy, and elevated uncertainty represent threats to the sector and the economy.

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Retail Sales Rise in August As Online Shopping Gains

– September 13, 2019

Retail sales improved in August, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.

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