Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

ISM NMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

ISM Surveys Show Improvement in January

– February 5, 2020

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in January, complementing the improved results from the manufacturing survey.

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Auto sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Auto Sales Rebound in January

– February 5, 2020

Auto sales rose in January and remain well within the range extending back to 2000. The healthy pace is a positive sign for consumer spending.

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ISM PMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

Hints of Improvement for Manufacturing

– February 4, 2020

The ISM PMI showed clear improvement in January hinting at a possible turnaround for manufacturing in coming months.

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GDP
Business-Cycle Conditions

Output Growth Holds Steady but Details Look Soft

– January 30, 2020

Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.

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Existing home sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

New- and Existing-Home Sales Diverge in December

– January 27, 2020

New-home sales fell in December while inventory rose. Stronger sales will help avoid cutbacks to future construction.

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Existing home sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Existing-Home Sales Rose in December But Inventory Remains Tight

– January 22, 2020

Existing-home sales have recovered from a recent dip but are unlikely to move significantly higher in coming months and quarters.

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Retail Sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Broad-based Gains for Retail Sales in December

– January 16, 2020

Retail-sales and initial-claims data indicate consumer spending is rising, supported by a robust labor market.

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Employment report
Business-Cycle Conditions

December Jobs Gains Disappoint, Suggest Slow Growth

– January 10, 2020

A disappointing December jobs report suggests slow growth for consumer spending and the overall economy.

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auto sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Auto Sales Slowed in December But Remain in Trend

– January 8, 2020

Auto sales fell slightly in December, but consumer fundamentals and the labor market remain healthy; the outlook remains moderately favorable.

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Employment report
Business-Cycle Conditions

Private Payrolls Expected to Increase in December

– January 8, 2020

ADP estimates 202,000 new jobs were created in December. Overall, the labor market remains solid and the most likely path is for continued expansion.

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Durable goods orders
Business-Cycle Conditions

ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Rises in December But Details Are Mixed

– January 7, 2020

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing NMI rose in December, but details are mixed suggesting slow growth and a cautious outlook.

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ISM PMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

ISM Manufacturing Index Remains Below Neutral in December

– January 3, 2020

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in December, extending the weak results over the last several months. Tepid trade and soft global growth are keeping risks elevated.

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