Existing-Home Sales Continue Recovery in July
Existing-home sales are recovering from a recent dip but are unlikely to move significantly higher in coming months and quarters.
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Erratic Policies Pummel Consumer Sentiment in Early August
Consumer sentiment fell sharply in August in reaction to the latest trade and monetary policy decisions.
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Housing Activity Picked Up in July
Single-family housing activity has stabilized, but there is little evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future; multifamily housing activity remains robust.
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Retail Sales Strengthen While Manufacturing Output Weakens
Retail sales rose again in July, but industrial production fell. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.
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Labor-Market Strength Continues
Initial claims near 200,000 and private job openings near 7 million suggest the labor market remains tight, supporting personal incomes, consumer confidence, and future consumer spending.
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Services-Sector Expansion Slowed in July
Nonmanufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in July. The results are consistent with a range of economic data that point to continued though uneven growth.
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Solid Jobs Report Suggests Moderate Growth
A solid though not spectacular July jobs report points to continued modest economic growth. It also adds to the uncertainty around monetary policy, making justification for the most recent rate cut and future rate cuts more difficult.
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Manufacturing Weakness Continued in July
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its fourth-straight decline and lowest reading since September 2016. Mixed economic data continue to suggest a high degree of caution amid slow economic expansion.
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Economy Expected to Have Added 156,000 Private Sector Jobs in July
ADP estimates 156,000 new jobs were created in July. Overall, the labor market remains solid, and while uncertainty over trade and monetary policy remain, the most likely path is for continued expansion.
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Consumer Confidence and Home Prices Move Higher
Consumer confidence rebounded in July and remains at a high level. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.
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Single-Family Housing Activity Is Trending Flat
Home sales rebounded in June. However, little evidence supports an expectation of a significant, sustained acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.
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Durable-Goods Orders Rose in June
Durable-goods orders rose in June, and core capital-goods orders are holding at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but policy uncertainty remains a risk.
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