New Home Sales Rose in August on Gains in the South and West

– September 25, 2019

Sales of new single-family homes rose in August, but regional performances vary widely. Still, the gain is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.

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Consumer Confidence Falls in September

– September 24, 2019

Consumer attitudes were off but still generally upbeat in September, supported by a strong labor market. Incoherent policies and on-going trade wars could hurt attitudes and consumer spending in the future.

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Industrial Production Rose in August but the Trend Remains Weak

– September 17, 2019

Industrial production rose in August, but the trend remains weak. Tariffs, erratic policy, and elevated uncertainty represent threats to the sector and the economy.

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Retail Sales Rise in August As Online Shopping Gains

– September 13, 2019

Retail sales improved in August, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.

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Core Consumer Prices Up 2.4 Percent, Fastest Since 2008

Core Consumer Prices Up 2.4 Percent, Fastest Since 2008

– September 12, 2019

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August as falling energy prices mask accelerating core prices.

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jobsinjeans

Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings Decline Slightly

– September 10, 2019

Small business confidence weakened in August while job openings fell very slightly in July, but both remain at high levels. Economic data overall have been mixed and uncertainty remains high. Caution is warranted.

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manthatisalotofworkers

Jobs Report Sends Mixed Signals

– September 6, 2019

U.S. private payrolls added just 96,000 jobs in August, raising concerns about the strength of the labor market and durability of the economic expansion. Erratic and unpredictable policy remain the biggest risks.

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servicesyay!

ISM Surveys Suggest Diverging Paths

– September 5, 2019

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rebounded in August, countering the weak results from the manufacturing report. However, erratic and unpredictable policies are keeping risks elevated.

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manufacturing2

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Points to Further Weakness

– September 3, 2019

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell below neutral for the first time in three years and highlights the growing negative impact of poor trade policy on business confidence.

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durablethings

New Orders for Durable Goods Rose Again in July, but Details Are Mixed

– August 26, 2019

Durable-goods orders rose for a second consecutive month, but the trend is essentially flat over the past year. Erratic, politically motivated policy remains the biggest risk to the economy.

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housesold

Single-Family-Housing Market Remains in a Flat Trend

– August 23, 2019

New-home sales fell in July, and there is little evidence to support an expectation of a significant, sustained acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.

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crystalballguy

Risk, Uncertainty, and the Probability of Recession 

– August 23, 2019

When businesses face uncertainty they tend to play it safe and hold back from making any big moves that entail risk but might reinvigorate the economy. The same can be said for consumers.

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