New Home Sales Rose in August on Gains in the South and West
Sales of new single-family homes rose in August, but regional performances vary widely. Still, the gain is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.
READ MORE
Consumer Confidence Falls in September
Consumer attitudes were off but still generally upbeat in September, supported by a strong labor market. Incoherent policies and on-going trade wars could hurt attitudes and consumer spending in the future.
READ MORE
Industrial Production Rose in August but the Trend Remains Weak
Industrial production rose in August, but the trend remains weak. Tariffs, erratic policy, and elevated uncertainty represent threats to the sector and the economy.
READ MORE
Retail Sales Rise in August As Online Shopping Gains
Retail sales improved in August, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.
READ MORE
Core Consumer Prices Up 2.4 Percent, Fastest Since 2008
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August as falling energy prices mask accelerating core prices.
READ MORE
Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings Decline Slightly
Small business confidence weakened in August while job openings fell very slightly in July, but both remain at high levels. Economic data overall have been mixed and uncertainty remains high. Caution is warranted.
READ MORE
Jobs Report Sends Mixed Signals
U.S. private payrolls added just 96,000 jobs in August, raising concerns about the strength of the labor market and durability of the economic expansion. Erratic and unpredictable policy remain the biggest risks.
READ MORE
ISM Surveys Suggest Diverging Paths
The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rebounded in August, countering the weak results from the manufacturing report. However, erratic and unpredictable policies are keeping risks elevated.
READ MORE
ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Points to Further Weakness
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell below neutral for the first time in three years and highlights the growing negative impact of poor trade policy on business confidence.
READ MORE
New Orders for Durable Goods Rose Again in July, but Details Are Mixed
Durable-goods orders rose for a second consecutive month, but the trend is essentially flat over the past year. Erratic, politically motivated policy remains the biggest risk to the economy.
READ MORE
Single-Family-Housing Market Remains in a Flat Trend
New-home sales fell in July, and there is little evidence to support an expectation of a significant, sustained acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.
READ MORE
Risk, Uncertainty, and the Probability of Recession
When businesses face uncertainty they tend to play it safe and hold back from making any big moves that entail risk but might reinvigorate the economy. The same can be said for consumers.
READ MORE
