ISM Surveys: The Calm Before the Potential Storms
The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in February. However, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak are still growing and represent a very substantial risk to the economic outlook.
READ MOREManufacturing-Sector Looks Weak Again in February
The ISM PMI weakened in February suggesting a delay in any significant turnaround for manufacturing.
READ MORERevised Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Growth at 2.1 Percent
Revised real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.
READ MOREDurable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Remain in a Flat Trend
Capital-goods orders remain in a flat trend, but at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.
READ MOREConsumer Confidence Holds Steady While Home Prices Move Higher
Consumer confidence remained high in February, supported by a positive outlook for the economy and labor market. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.
READ MOREExisting-Home Sales Remain Range Bound; Inventory Remains Tight
Existing-home sales fell 1.3 percent in January and remain in a broad flat trend. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
READ MORENew-Home Construction Falls While Permits Rise in January
Housing starts and permits were mixed in January; significant and sustained gains over coming quarters seem unlikely.
READ MOREPositive Surprise for Manufacturing
The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests the manufacturing sector may be rebounding but the outlook remains uncertain.
READ MORERetail Spending Remains Close to Trend in January
Retail sales were solid in January suggesting continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.
READ MORESmall-Business Optimism Rose in January but the Outlook Is Less Clear
Small-business confidence rose in January; labor shortages and the economic outlook remain concerns.
READ MOREJob Openings Decline in December, Continuing Downward Trend
Private-sector job openings have fallen recently hinting at some marginal easing of labor pressures.
READ MOREEmployment and the Participation Rate Rose in January
U.S. payrolls rose by 225,000 in January with both the unemployment rate and participation rate ticking up; however, significant risks remain.
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