Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

ISM Services NMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

ISM Surveys: The Calm Before the Potential Storms

– March 4, 2020

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in February. However, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak are still growing and represent a very substantial risk to the economic outlook.

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ISM PMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

Manufacturing-Sector Looks Weak Again in February

– March 2, 2020

The ISM PMI weakened in February suggesting a delay in any significant turnaround for manufacturing.

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GDP
Business-Cycle Conditions

Revised Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Growth at 2.1 Percent

– February 27, 2020

Revised real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.

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Durable goods orders
Business-Cycle Conditions

Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Remain in a Flat Trend

– February 27, 2020

Capital-goods orders remain in a flat trend, but at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.

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Consumer confidence
Business-Cycle Conditions

Consumer Confidence Holds Steady While Home Prices Move Higher

– February 25, 2020

Consumer confidence remained high in February, supported by a positive outlook for the economy and labor market. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.

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Existing home sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Existing-Home Sales Remain Range Bound; Inventory Remains Tight

– February 21, 2020

Existing-home sales fell 1.3 percent in January and remain in a broad flat trend. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.

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housing starts and permits
Business-Cycle Conditions

New-Home Construction Falls While Permits Rise in January

– February 19, 2020

Housing starts and permits were mixed in January; significant and sustained gains over coming quarters seem unlikely.

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manufacturing
Business-Cycle Conditions

Positive Surprise for Manufacturing

– February 18, 2020

The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests the manufacturing sector may be rebounding but the outlook remains uncertain.

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Retail sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Retail Spending Remains Close to Trend in January

– February 14, 2020

Retail sales were solid in January suggesting continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

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NFIB
Business-Cycle Conditions

Small-Business Optimism Rose in January but the Outlook Is Less Clear

– February 11, 2020

Small-business confidence rose in January; labor shortages and the economic outlook remain concerns.

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Job openings
Business-Cycle Conditions

Job Openings Decline in December, Continuing Downward Trend

– February 11, 2020

Private-sector job openings have fallen recently hinting at some marginal easing of labor pressures.

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Employment report
Business-Cycle Conditions

Employment and the Participation Rate Rose in January

– February 7, 2020

U.S. payrolls rose by 225,000 in January with both the unemployment rate and participation rate ticking up; however, significant risks remain.

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