Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Employment report
Business-Cycle Conditions

Private Payrolls Expected to Increase in December

– January 8, 2020

ADP estimates 202,000 new jobs were created in December. Overall, the labor market remains solid and the most likely path is for continued expansion.

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Durable goods orders
Business-Cycle Conditions

ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Rises in December But Details Are Mixed

– January 7, 2020

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing NMI rose in December, but details are mixed suggesting slow growth and a cautious outlook.

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ISM PMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

ISM Manufacturing Index Remains Below Neutral in December

– January 3, 2020

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in December, extending the weak results over the last several months. Tepid trade and soft global growth are keeping risks elevated.

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JOLTS
Business-Cycle Conditions

Labor Market Regains Momentum

– December 17, 2019

A high level of job openings and quits suggest the labor market remains tight and is one of the key supports for consumer sentiment.

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Industrial production
Business-Cycle Conditions

Industrial Production Jumped in October but the Trend Remains Weak

– December 17, 2019

Manufacturing output jumped in November but it’s too early to tell if growth will be sustained.

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housing-december-2019
Business-Cycle Conditions

Housing Starts and Permits Rose Again in November, But Upside Remains Limited

– December 17, 2019

Housing activity continues to rebound from a period of weakness, but further upside is likely limited.

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Retail sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Holiday Spending Off to a Modest Start

– December 13, 2019

Preliminary estimates suggest retail sales were modest in November implying slow growth remains the most likely path.

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Initial Claims
Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Claims Rose Sharply but the Labor Market Remains Tight

– December 12, 2019

Weekly initial claims jumped but the data tend to be quite volatile, especially around the holidays. Overall, the labor market remains tight.

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JOLTS
Business-Cycle Conditions

Small-Business Optimism Rose in November

– December 10, 2019

Small-business confidence rose in November despite concerns over labor shortages.

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Employment report
Business-Cycle Conditions

Labor Market Shows Resilience in November

– December 6, 2019

A strong November jobs report suggests support for consumer spending and continued economic expansion, though erratic policies could weigh on consumer and business confidence.

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ISM services sector
Business-Cycle Conditions

November Services-Sector Survey Perpetuates Doubts

– December 4, 2019

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in November, but the mixed results and near-neutral level of the composite index perpetuates doubts about the strength of the economy.

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Nonresidential construction
Business-Cycle Conditions

Nonresidential Construction Weighed Down by Private Sector

– December 2, 2019

Nonresidential construction activity continues at a high level though the broader trend is essentially flat.

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