Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Unemployment Claims Continue to Fall
Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Unemployment Claims Continue to Fall

– June 4, 2020

Continued slowing of initial claims may be a sign the economy is bottoming and setting the stage for growth later in the year.

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Signs of Improvement in the ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey in May
Business-Cycle Conditions

Signs of Improvement in the ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey in May

– June 3, 2020

The nonmanufacturing sector contracted at a slower pace in May amid easing restrictions and rising optimism for a rebound.

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Manufacturing Survey Less Negative in May
Business-Cycle Conditions

Manufacturing Survey Less Negative in May

– June 1, 2020

The ISM Manufacturing survey showed some improvement in May with several components rebounding from multi-year or record lows.

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capital goods
Business-Cycle Conditions

Manufacturers’ New Orders Posted Widespread Declines in April

– May 28, 2020

Manufacturers’ new orders tumbled in April on broad-based declines but as government restrictions are eased, signs of healing are likely to emerge.

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initial claims
Business-Cycle Conditions

Initial Unemployment Claims Register Lowest Talley Since March

– May 28, 2020

Massive layoffs continue but the trend has been slowing for eight consecutive weeks.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Regional Fed Surveys Show Improving Expectations

– May 22, 2020

Recent surveys suggest business current conditions remain extremely weak but expectations about the future are improving.

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unemployment
Business-Cycle Conditions

New Unemployment Claims Slowed Again as Total Unemployed Hits a Record High

– May 21, 2020

The labor market continues to struggle under the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and government policy responses, but some signs of easing are emerging.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Low Mortgage Rates May Support Housing Rebound

– May 19, 2020

Low mortgage rates may provide some support for housing activity following a plunge in starts and permits in April.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Manufacturing Activity Plummets in April

– May 15, 2020

Industrial production plunged as the tsunami of disastrous economic data continues. While some areas are moving towards easing restrictions, it will likely be a slow path back.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Mixed Emotions for Consumers in Early May

– May 15, 2020

Consumer attitudes are changing in somewhat unexpected ways as personal health, family finances, and social interactions are impacted by lockdown policies.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Retail Sales Post Another Record Plunge in April

– May 15, 2020

Retail sales posted another record decline in April and are likely to show significant weakness over the next several months.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

New Unemployment Claims Slowed Again, Dropping Below 3 Million

– May 14, 2020

The labor market and the economy have been crushed by the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and government policy responses.

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