Business-Cycle Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Retail sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Retail Spending Remains Close to Trend in January

– February 14, 2020

Retail sales were solid in January suggesting continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

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NFIB
Business-Cycle Conditions

Small-Business Optimism Rose in January but the Outlook Is Less Clear

– February 11, 2020

Small-business confidence rose in January; labor shortages and the economic outlook remain concerns.

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Job openings
Business-Cycle Conditions

Job Openings Decline in December, Continuing Downward Trend

– February 11, 2020

Private-sector job openings have fallen recently hinting at some marginal easing of labor pressures.

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Employment report
Business-Cycle Conditions

Employment and the Participation Rate Rose in January

– February 7, 2020

U.S. payrolls rose by 225,000 in January with both the unemployment rate and participation rate ticking up; however, significant risks remain.

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ISM NMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

ISM Surveys Show Improvement in January

– February 5, 2020

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in January, complementing the improved results from the manufacturing survey.

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Auto sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Auto Sales Rebound in January

– February 5, 2020

Auto sales rose in January and remain well within the range extending back to 2000. The healthy pace is a positive sign for consumer spending.

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ISM PMI
Business-Cycle Conditions

Hints of Improvement for Manufacturing

– February 4, 2020

The ISM PMI showed clear improvement in January hinting at a possible turnaround for manufacturing in coming months.

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GDP
Business-Cycle Conditions

Output Growth Holds Steady but Details Look Soft

– January 30, 2020

Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.

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Existing home sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

New- and Existing-Home Sales Diverge in December

– January 27, 2020

New-home sales fell in December while inventory rose. Stronger sales will help avoid cutbacks to future construction.

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Existing home sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Existing-Home Sales Rose in December But Inventory Remains Tight

– January 22, 2020

Existing-home sales have recovered from a recent dip but are unlikely to move significantly higher in coming months and quarters.

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Retail Sales
Business-Cycle Conditions

Broad-based Gains for Retail Sales in December

– January 16, 2020

Retail-sales and initial-claims data indicate consumer spending is rising, supported by a robust labor market.

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Employment report
Business-Cycle Conditions

December Jobs Gains Disappoint, Suggest Slow Growth

– January 10, 2020

A disappointing December jobs report suggests slow growth for consumer spending and the overall economy.

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