nycu_leadingIndicators_October

October Business Conditions Monthly

– October 12, 2017

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators Index declined in September to a reading of 75 from 88 in the prior month. The Roughly Coincident Indicators Index remained at a perfect 100 for a seventh month while the Lagging Indicators Index rose …

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September Business Conditions Monthly

– September 7, 2017

The AIER’s Leading Indicators Index increased again in August to a reading of 88 from 83 in the prior month. The Coincident Indicators Index remained at a perfect 100 for a sixth month while the Lagging Indicators Index held at 50 (see chart below). Th …

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August Business Conditions Monthly

– August 9, 2017

The AIER Business Cycle Conditions Leaders index rebounded in July to a reading of 83 from 75 in the prior month. The Coinciders index remained at a perfect 100 for a fifth month while the Laggers index dropped to 50 from 58 in June (chart 1). The rebo …

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July Business Conditions Monthly

– July 21, 2017

The AIER Business Cycle Conditions Leaders index fell again in June, to a reading of 75, the second monthly decline in a row. The Coinciders index remained at 100 for a fourth month, while the Laggers index dropped to 58 from 75 in May. All three index …

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June Business Conditions Monthly

– June 19, 2017

The AIER Business-Cycle Conditions Leaders index fell slightly to 79 in May, the first decline since July 2016. The Coinciders index remained at a perfect 100 for a third month, while the Laggers index held at 75 for the second month. All three indexes …

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May Business Conditions Monthly

– May 22, 2017

Economic data over the past month show mostly favorable underlying trends. The labor market remains the cornerstone of the expansion, with job creation and wage gains boosting aggregate personal income. Consumer spending continues to trend higher with …

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April Business Conditions Monthly

– April 14, 2017

The AIER Business-Cycle Conditions Leaders index rose to 83 in March, the highest level in two and a half years (Chart 1). The Coinciders index rose to a perfect 100, the highest level since September 2015, while the Laggers index pulled back to 83 fro …

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March Business Conditions Monthly

– March 9, 2017

The U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace. The AIER Business-Cycle Conditions indexes all posted results well above the neutral 50 level in the latest month, February. Our Leaders registered 75 for the third consecutive month (Chart 1). Amon …

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February Business Conditions Monthly

– February 13, 2017

The U.S. economy performed solidly in 2016, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Our index of Primary Leading Indicators also remained well into expansionary territory in the latest month, suggesting a low risk of recession in the months ahead. With the Federal Reserve’s slow approach to a tightening monetary policy, the greatest risk is that we don’t know what to expect from Trump administration policies.

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January Business Conditions Monthly

– January 12, 2017

The outlook for the U.S. economy continues to improve. Our index of Primary Leading Indicators rose again in the latest month, the labor market continues to show strength, financial conditions remain favorable, and business and consumer confidence are broadly upbeat.

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December Business Conditions Monthly

– December 13, 2016

Business conditions continue to improve. Our index of Primary Leading Indicators rose for the third straight month, reaching its highest level since September 2015. Contributing to the increase were improvements in consumer expectations and real new orders for core capital goods.

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November Business Conditions Monthly

– November 9, 2016

Consumer spending slowed to a 2.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter from a strong 4.3 percent pace in the second quarter, according to the latest data on real gross domestic product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. On a year-over-year basis, personal consumption expenditures, a measure of real consumer spending, grew at a 2.6 percent rate, down slightly from a 2.7 percent pace in the second quarter (Chart 1).

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