The Sound Money Project was founded in January 2009 to conduct research and promote awareness about monetary stability and financial privacy. The project is comprised of leading academics and practitioners in money, banking, and macroeconomics. It offers regular commentary and in-depth analysis on monetary policy, alternative monetary systems, financial markets regulation, cryptocurrencies, and the history of monetary and macroeconomic thought. For the latest on sound money issues, subscribe to our working paper series and follow along on Twitter or Facebook.
Advisory Board: Steve H. Hanke, Jerry L. Jordan, Lawrence H. White
Director: William J. Luther
Senior Fellows: Nicolás Cachanosky, Gerald P. Dwyer, Joshua R. Hendrickson, Thomas L. Hogan, Gerald P. O’Driscoll, Jr., Alexander W. Salter
Fellows: James L. Caton, J.P. Koning
Understanding The Rise In Inflation Expectations
“Bond markets are currently pricing in a little more than two percent inflation on average over the next ten years, which suggests inflation will pick up. So far, Fed officials seem willing to permit inflation to run a bit high over the next decade. Whether they will remain so permissive when the inflation numbers start rolling in––or, ratchet up IOR to bring inflation down to two percent––remains to be seen.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Rising Interest Rates and Inflation
“A 5 to 10 percent jump in inflation expectations could be enough to set off a fiscal crisis for the federal government. And a fiscal crisis could be enough to generate a crisis of confidence in the dollar. There are numerous traps to avoid on the road ahead. Yet, monetary and fiscal policy both continue on expansionary paths with the greatest boldness that we have seen since the chairmanship of Arthur Burns.” ~ James L. Caton
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Signs of Inflation so Far
“The increases in money held by the public are a new experiment to test a widely verified proposition: substantial increases in the quantity of money held by the public are associated with substantial inflation. Inflation is quite likely to be higher in coming years than it has been in the recent past. Whether the increase is muted – an increase of one percentage point per year or so – or noticeably larger remains to be seen.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer
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Only Ending Lockdowns Can Stimulate the Economy
“Regardless of what one believes about the health costs or benefits of lockdowns, preventing businesses from operating is clearly bad for the economy. Fiscal spending and monetary expansion cannot improve matters while these restrictions remain in place.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan
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In Finance, Slow is Good
“What the central bank RTGS/LSM two-step teaches us is that we need a good balance between fast and slow. Sure, real-time settlement is a nice feature. But let’s also have delayed settlement. If brokerages have a choice to use some combination of two-day and real-time settlement, we may arrive at a socially optimal stock settlement rate.” ~ J.P. Koning
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Texas Electricity Prices Are Lower Due to Deregulation
“Contrary to McGinty and Patterson, a close look at the evidence reveals that deregulation and competition have, in fact, reduced electricity prices in Texas. Prices in competitive markets have fallen, while those of noncompetitive utilities have increased. Competition has brought both residential and commercial prices down below the national averages.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan
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Should We Rethink Macroeconomics?
“Critiques of mainstream macroeconomics are common among Austrian economists. In a new book, titled Macroeconomics as Systems Theory, Richard Wagner goes further. He starts with Erik Lindahl’s distinction between microeconomics as individual action and macroeconomics as interaction. He then offers a new approach to macroeconomics based on theories of complex systems.” ~ William J. Luther
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The Banking System and the Evolution of Money
“Many of the public policies that shackle the financial sector are designed to do so, because they help governments accomplish some other political objective. Engaging these political considerations, and how they impinge on banking and finance, is critical if we want to understand the history of monetary institutions, especially in the United States.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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Do These Money Supply Charts Portend Hyperinflation?
“Financial markets indicators suggest that high inflation is not likely. Even with a very large balance sheet, the Fed has proven that it can control inflation by paying high rates of interest on bank reserves. Whether Fed officials choose to do so is the open question.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan
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How Will We Pay for a $1.9 Trillion Spending Bill?
“Politicians are quick to ignore the costs of government spending in proposing legislation and obscure those costs by issuing debt rather than raising revenues. It is politically popular to issue debt and send checks to everyone. The benefits of the policy are clear: people get checks. The costs, which ripple out through financial markets as interest rates are bid up, are difficult to tie to the policy.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Monetary Policy in a Pandemic
“The Fed’s new lending programs were not very helpful, and they come at a potentially high cost. Insofar as they were designed to allocate credit, as opposed to merely providing liquidity, they amount to an expansion of the Fed’s mandate. And, although the extent of the Fed’s credit allocation was limited this time, it has set a dangerous precedent, which risks subjecting the Fed to even more political influence going forward.” ~ William J. Luther
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Yellen was Right, the Federal Debt “Should Keep People Awake at Night”
“If the burden of interest payments increases, will Congress make the difficult decisions required to reduce federal spending? What contingency plan do Yellen and Powell have in their back pocket if the dollar suffers a speculative attack owing to an unsound fiscal position? Yellen was right: ‘It’s the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.'” ~ James L. Caton
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