Pertinent Category: Daily Economy

Fed Banks Cautious on the Economy, With a Dash of Hope

– April 21, 2016

Our economic model’s cautious warning, which we published earlier this week, appears to be in line with two reports released today by Federal Reserve banks.

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manufacturing

Giving Past Offenders a Chance at a New Job

– April 20, 2016

If you’ve ever applied for a job, you’ve probably seen one particular question on your form: do you have a criminal record? But it’s becoming increasingly likely that you won’t be asked the next time you apply.

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Our Economic Model is Flashing a Warning. Here’s Why

– April 19, 2016

Here at AIER, we predict recessions based on our time-tested, data-dependent Business-Cycle Conditions model. Our April report, which we are releasing today, shows a decline to 38 in our index of Leaders, its first drop below the neutral 50 level in 110 months. We should take notice. But why did it drop?

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Why Large, Small Caps Perform Differently

– April 18, 2016

U.S. equity markets have rebounded sharply since mid-February but the performance gap between large caps and small caps is significant.

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Today’s Chart: Jobs Are Powering an Uneven Economy

– April 15, 2016

We’ve seen a number of signs of economic softness lately, but the labor market has not been among them. In fact, Thursday’s initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 253,000 for the week ending April 9, marking its lowest point since 1973.

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Consumer Prices Were Lackluster in March

– April 14, 2016

Consumer prices in March, released today, showed weaker-than-expected growth. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in March from February. Even though it is the fastest monthly growth since December 2015, it was lower than economists’ expectations.  

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Can You Expect Your Money to Double in 10 Years?

– April 13, 2016

Sometimes when I do a back-of-the-napkin estimate about how much I’ll have saved in the future, I’ll use a handy formula known as the “rule of 72.” This rule says that if you divide 72 by your rate of return, the resulting number is roughly how many years it will take your money to double.

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Minimum Wage: Can Government Fix the Economy?

– April 12, 2016

Many Americans are legitimately dissatisfied with their economic progress.  The tepid recovery has left too many workers unemployed and it has held down wage increases for those with jobs.  Still, do we really think mayors, governors and presidents will solve our economic problems?

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An Interesting Start to Earnings Reporting Season

– April 11, 2016

Alcoa’s earnings report is typically considered the unofficial start of earnings reporting season. The company is due to deliver results today after the U.S. equity market closes. However, according to data compiled by Factset, 22, or 4.4 percent, of the 505 companies that are currently part of the S&P 500 have already reported first quarter earnings.

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To Save Social Security, Spread the Pain Around

– April 8, 2016

Since its enactment in 1935, Social Security has become an important feature of the retirement landscape for all Americans. But its finances are in need of repair, and we can’t simply ignore the problem.

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It’s Who You Know: Networking and Economic Wellness

– April 7, 2016

We usually think of human capital as knowledge: the education and training you need to complete a task on the job. But networks — “who you know” and how you interact with those people —  are also critical to economic wellbeing.

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AIER Internship Helps Students Broaden Their Horizons

– April 6, 2016

AIER’s academic year internship provides an opportunity for local high school and college students to work like economists. Most of our interns spend four to six hours with us each week during their semester. We assign these students to work with a research fellow who provides direction.

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