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As job openings and business confidence increase, there are signs that the pace of hiring and wage growth could quicken in the coming months, says our senior research fellow, Bob Hughes.
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We are all reasonably familiar with the idea of Social Security: You pay money in while you’re working and you get something back when you’re retired. But the system is complex, and even the most basic rules are misunderstood by a large segment of the population.
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In a recent article, the Wall Street Journal reviewed what economic forecasters got right and wrong in 2015. Among what they got wrong is the inflation forecast. In December 2014, Fed officials forecast an inflation rate of between 1 and 1.6 percent, but it turned out to be only 0.4 percent by November (December inflation numbers are not known yet). But this may not be quite as big a failure of forecasters as it seems, because there is more than one way to look at inflation.
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A strong December payroll gain plus upward revisions to November and October suggest the economy is entering 2016 with good momentum.
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This institute has long been known for its work in identifying turning points in the economy, including predicting recessions. And we have a pretty good track record in that regard since we started studying business cycles in 1953. But such work requires vigilance, and changing with the times as necessary.
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Markets go up and down daily. For every buyer, there is a seller. But there is a broader historical point here. Even during periods of relative growth, there are negative stretches.
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It has been an uncharacteristically warm fall and early winter here in the Northeast, and I for one was very happy to forego a White Christmas in order to have a warm one. But how much does the weather matter to average Americans, and how does it affect the cost of living?
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Here’s hoping that 2016 brings back an economy that relies more on business fundamentals, and less on the machinations of technocrats in Washington. With the drama of the first Fed rate hike behind us, perhaps business leaders and investors can focus on the things that make American companies competitive for the long haul.
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From our top blogs of 2015: Nothing has risen more quickly than the cost of going to college, our visiting research fellow, Steven Pressman, wrote in August. He discusses whether it is still a worthwhile investment.
READ MOREFrom our top blogs of 2015: Is the middle class shrinking? That may not be possible, depending on what definition you use, says our Polina Vlasenko.
READ MOREOur best-read blog of 2015: Our Luke Delorme informed our readers about the changes that Congress made to Social Security as part of the budget deal with the president.
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From our top blogs of 2015: The method that our data scientist, Theodore Cangero, used to buy a car.
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