Business Conditions Monthly

Thursday, August 15th, 2019

AIER’s leading indicators fell back below neutral in July; second-quarter GDP posted a modest gain, but details look solid.

Friday, July 12th, 2019

AIER’s Leading Indicators index was unchanged in June, holding at the neutral reading of 50. The Lagging Indicators index was also unchanged in the latest month, repeating the May result of 42. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index fell for a second straight month, to 58 (see chart).

Friday, June 14th, 2019

AIER’s Leading Indicators index rose 12 points to a neutral reading of 50 in May, up from 38 in April. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index both fell, to 75 and 42, respectively (see chart).

Thursday, May 9th, 2019

AIER’s Leading Indicators index rose 13 points to 38 in April, up from 25 in March. March’s result was the lowest since June 2009. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index both held steady, at 83 and 67, respectively (see chart).

Tuesday, April 16th, 2019

AIER’s Leading Indicators index dropped 17 points to 25 in March, the lowest level since June 2009. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index also fell, to 83 and 67, respectively (see chart).

Thursday, March 14th, 2019

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index held steady at 42 in February while the Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index were also unchanged, at 92 and 75, respectively (see chart).

Thursday, February 14th, 2019

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index fell 16 points to 42 in January. The result was the first reading below 50 since August 2016. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index fell to 92 while the Lagging Indicators index dropped to 75 (see chart).

Thursday, January 17th, 2019

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index fell 21 points to 58 in December. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index held at 100 while the Lagging Indicators index gained 16 points to reach 83 (see chart).

Tuesday, December 18th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index pulled back in November, dropping to 79 following an 83 in October and 88 in September.

Friday, November 16th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index pulled back in October, dropping to 83 following an 88 in September. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index dropped to 92 while the Lagging Indicators index held steady, posting an 83 (see chart).

Friday, October 12th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index improved in September, hitting 88 following 83 in August. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index held at a perfect 100 reading while the Lagging Indicators index also held steady, posting an 83 (see chart below).

Friday, September 14th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index rebounded in the latest month, registering an 83 in August. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index held at 100 while the Lagging Indicators index also held steady, posting an 83 (see chart below).

Monday, August 20th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index eased back in July, registering a 79 following a 92. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index returned to a perfect 100 reading while the Lagging Indicators index fell to 83 (see chart below).

Thursday, July 12th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators eased back in June, registering a 92 following three straight 100s. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index also registered a 92 following three consecutive perfect 100s.

Thursday, June 14th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index posted its third-straight 100 in May as all 12 individual indicators continue to expand. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index also registered its third consecutive perfect 100 and its 12th 100 in the past 15 months.

Friday, May 11th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index posted its second straight 100 in April as all 12 individual indicators continue to expand. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index also registered its second consecutive perfect 100 and its 11th 100 in the past 14 months.

Thursday, April 12th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index reached a perfect 100 reading in March after coming in at 92 in February. The March result is the first 100 since January 2014.

Friday, March 16th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index rose to a reading of 92 in February returning the index to the three-year high recorded for November and December.

Thursday, February 15th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index fell to a reading of 88 in January, slightly below the three-year high of 92 recorded for November and December.

Thursday, January 11th, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index held at 92 in December, matching the highest level since 2014 and the best multi-month performance since a run of four readings of 100 between October 2013 and January 2014.

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