Use and Abuse of Statistical Models in COVID19 (Video)
My usual beat concerns historical tax statistics and inequality ratios. This research program has made me profoundly aware of the use and abuse of statistical models. In absence of factual tests, the void has been filled by statistical forecasts, many of which suffer from some of the same fallacies as historical models. Compounding the problem is that these models are being created in real time. These models have contributed to social and political panic.
Economist Matt Kibbe and I talk about this problem along with public-choice issues associated with the lockdowns.
Phillip W. Magness
Phillip W. Magness works at the Independent Institute. He was formerly the Senior Research Faculty and F.A. Hayek Chair in Economics and Economic History at the American Institute for Economic Research. He holds a PhD and MPP from George Mason University’s School of Public Policy, and a BA from the University of St. Thomas (Houston). Prior to joining AIER, Dr. Magness spent over a decade teaching public policy, economics, and international trade at institutions including American University, George Mason University, and Berry College. Magness’s work encompasses the economic history of the United States and Atlantic world, with specializations in the economic dimensions of slavery and racial discrimination, the history of taxation, and measurements of economic inequality over time. He also maintains an active research interest in higher education policy and the history of economic thought. His work has appeared in scholarly outlets including the Journal of Political Economy, the Economic Journal, Economic Inquiry, and the Journal of Business Ethics. In addition to his scholarship, Magness’s popular writings have appeared in numerous venues including the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Newsweek, Politico, Reason, National Review, and the Chronicle of Higher Education.
