Tempering the Optimism

This morning we got our first bit of new economic data since Friday’s blockbuster jobs report, and it was more muted than one might have expected.

The National Federation of Independent Business’ October index was unchanged at 96.1, slightly below the average of the 12 preceding months, which was 96.9.

A slightly more optimistic note came from the question to business owners on their plans to increase the compensation of their workers in the next three months. The survey ticked upward slightly in October to 17 from 16 in September. That put this indicator back where it had been in December, before dipping later that winter and slogging its way back up for the rest of the year.

Despite the great tone of Friday’s jobs report, our senior research fellow, Bob Hughes, says the economic storyline is still remarkably consistent. After recent run of mixed data that felt like another soft patch, the economy appears to be moving back to its slow growth trend, he said.

“Friday’s report reversed some weaker momentum in the economic data. But in the longer term, there’s still room for faster wage growth, and better consumer confidence to really help the economy get on a faster trend. But we’re not seeing that yet,” Hughes said.

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