“Inflation and Hyperinflation” – John Mauldin
“In the previous chapter, we discussed why the current crisis presents the real risk of deflation if monetary velocity falls and does not rise. However, there are many reasons to believe that we will not see deflation. The major mistake that deflationists now make is their focus on spare capacity. Central bankers and most economists assume that because of the huge deleveraging we’re seeing, governments can print money and borrow like crazy without provoking inflation because of slack in productive capacity created by the recession.
The severity of the recession means that they are wrong. During a normal downturn, production slows, but spare capacity isn’t destroyed, and it is able to create extra supply when demand returns. A severe credit squeeze, though, does lasting structural damage, as the evaporation of bank lending destroys firms’ longer-term ability to produce at given levels. People who think inflation isn’t possible point to high unemployment in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe. But as we’ve shown earlier in this book, many of the unemployed in the developed world are unskilled or will be unemployed long enough that their skills will be totally rusty and, hence, they will be unemployable. The slack, in other word is imaginary.” Read more.
“Inflation and Hyperinflation”
John Mauldin
Jutia Group, March 15, 2011.
Image by renjith krishnan / FreeDigitalPhotos.net.
