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March 11, 2016 Reading Time: < 1 minute

Remaining true to Harwood’s principle that business cycles matter is particularly important now, as our Business-Cycle Conditions model suggests some caution. Our index of leading indicators has fallen in the latest month and is at the neutral 50 level compared with 54 in the previous month (Chart 1). While that does not suggest a recession is imminent, it does reflect a weakened economy and the importance of closely monitoring economic conditions.

The weakness is a result of the ongoing crosscurrents of moderate growth in the core domestic economy partially offset by headwinds from slow global growth, a strong dollar, and weak commodity prices. Those headwinds are having significant negative impacts on U.S. exports and commodity-related industries.


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1. Overview

2. Economy

3. Inflation

4. Policy

5. Investing

6. Pulling It All Together/Appendix

BCM_March2016

Robert Hughes

Bob Hughes

Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals.

Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.

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