Daily Economy News

Use and Abuse of Statistical Models in COVID19 (Video)

– April 2, 2020

In absence of factual tests, the void has been filled by statistical forecasts, many of which suffer from some of the same fallacies as historical models. Compounding the problem is that these models are being created in real time. These models have contributed to social and political panic.

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Initial claims

Unemployment Claims Surpass Great Recession

– April 2, 2020

The unprecedented economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak is crushing the labor market.

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Cash Is King in COVID-19

– April 2, 2020

We’re still early in this crisis, so who knows what patterns in cash demand will emerge. But for now, cash is filling its normal role as alleviator of uncertainty. To cope with the turmoil, people are withdrawing a bit more of the stuff. And that’s fine!

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Controls Breeding More Controls

– April 2, 2020

The extraordinary government clampdown on economic life that we are enduring — in order to preserve hospital beds and the capacity of doctors and nurses — is the result, not just of the coronavirus, but of the severe restrictions on economic activity that have made our economy brittle and poorly-suited to adapt and respond to this natural emergency.

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Everyone Has a Human Right to Work

– April 1, 2020

The Trump base wants to work. And likely needs to. The Trump administration should go out of its way to legalize the right to work so that desperate service employees and workers in general at least have the chance to fix their devastated situations.

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We Don’t Yet Live in a Police State. Or Perhaps We Do.

– April 1, 2020

Government advice is just that, good or bad and I grant that it is mostly sensible. But it is not for the police to misinterpret the law as they see fit or to enforce government advice.

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You Are Conserving Toilet Paper, Aren’t You?

– April 1, 2020

Never take toilet paper for granted again. Never take anything for granted again. Let’s come out of this with a new appreciation for the astonishingly productive power and humanitarianism of markets.

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ISM PMI

Manufacturing-Sector Contracts in March; Recession Probability Rising

– April 1, 2020

The ISM PMI dropped below neutral in March suggesting a contraction in manufacturing and rising probability of recession.

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The Creation of a Surveillance-and-Snitching Society

– April 1, 2020

We muddy the message when we don’t let prices change, and we tear the ties that bind us together when we create a snitching society.

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Socialism Under the Cover of Pandemic

– April 1, 2020

Writing for the New York Times, Saez and Zucman use the occasion of the coronavirus’s economic disruptions to argue for the immediate adoption of a massive public jobs security program, accompanied by sweeping and punitive forms of taxation upon corporations and the wealthy.

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