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Supply Constraints and Inflation, Revisited
“The Fed was late to realize nominal spending was surging and failed to correct course promptly when it realized it had made a mistake. Prices are higher today—and will remain permanently higher—as a consequence.” ~ William J. Luther
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Headline Inflation Falls, But Core Inflation Remains Elevated
“At this point, it seems likely Fed officials will move forward with a 25 basis point hike. But how high they will push rates this year and how long they will keep rates high remain open questions.” ~ William J. Luther
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Consumer Sentiment Rose and Inflation Expectations Fell Sharply in January
“Consumer sentiment improved in January, sustaining the recent uptrend, though the overall level remains weak. Short-term inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Welcome the Disinflation, Beware the Narrative
“Let us all hope that disinflation proceeds expeditiously and, if it does, we remain mindful that the outcome is in spite of, rather than owing to, central bankers and their narrow assortment of lagging and unpredictable policy instruments.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Wage and Price Controls Are Not the Answer to Inflation
“If the US imposed economy-wide price controls, as Krugman proposes, it would not stop inflation, just as the Emperor Diocletian’s economy-wide controls did not stop Roman inflation and just as the 1970s economy-wide controls did not stop US inflation.” ~ Raymond C. Niles
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FOMC Ratchets Up Inflation Projection
“FOMC member projections suggest that inflation will come down only gradually over the next two to three years and that the price level will remain permanently elevated.” ~ William J. Luther
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Does Government Spending Lead to Inflation?
“The key point is that it is the central bank’s willingness to help finance government spending, not the spending itself, that drives inflation. In short: inflation remains a monetary phenomenon.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger
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Consumer Inflation Expectations Fell Sharply in December
“Consumer sentiment improved in December but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Confidence Rose and Inflation Expectations Fell in December
“Consumer confidence rebounded in December, but consumer expectations remain at recessionary levels. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Supply, Demand, and Inflation: The Big Picture
“Where did all this inflation come from? Supply-side issues are a problem, but in terms of magnitudes, it just doesn’t make sense to call them the chief contributor.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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