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Research Reports
The Inflation Risk Around the Corner
Written by Steven Cunningham, PhD, Director of Research and Education   
Monday, 20 February 2012 00:02

head-shot-steve-cunninghamSimple policy arithmetic translates into potential inflation of 7.2 percent within two years. But that’s before unprecedented bank reserves come into play.

Rough estimates suggest that inflation could rise as high as 15 percent by late 2013 or 2014 if the Federal Reserve is unable to drain off more than 25 percent of the reserves in the banking system.

That’s the best estimate based on a variety of forces that traditionally drive inflation.

 
Housing’s Ominous Shadow
Written by Julie Ni Zhu, Research Analyst   
Monday, 20 February 2012 00:01

head-shot-julie-zhuThe meltdown wreaked havoc on a cornerstone of the economy, leaving the market awash in empty foreclosed properties. Now, an obscure inventory threatens growth.

A hidden stockpile of real estate could put a cramp in the housing market’s tentative recovery. This real estate is called shadow inventory—and it’s bad news for a market already struggling to sell 1.9 million vacant housing units.

 
The Fed Targets Inflation
Written by Steven Cunningham, PhD, Director of Research and Education   
Friday, 03 February 2012 15:24

head-shot-steve-cunninghamIn a formal departure from its longstanding dual mandate, the Federal Reserve commits to a new course. But how long will it last?

Ben Bernanke is getting ready to fight inflation. This comes through loud and clear from recent statements and initiatives.

Most recently, on January 26, the chairman of the Federal Reserve announced that the Fed would target an inflation rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The PCE is the broadest measure of consumer prices, thought to be driven primarily by macroeconomic policy rather than by supply and demand shifts in individual markets.

 
Tax Rates for a Small Planet
Written by Zinnia Mukherjee, PhD, Research Fellow   
Friday, 03 February 2012 15:20

head-shot-zinniaOver the years, the U.S. has lost an advantage by failing to reduce corporate tax liabilities.

In his State of the Union speech this January, President Obama pledged to fix the high corporate tax rates that have helped drive manufacturing jobs overseas.

 
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