During the recent presidential campaign, a persistent question was whether the election of the Democratic candidate threatened a major growth in government spending. As a benchmark for future comparison, it is worthwhile to take a look at by how much the federal government has grown over the last eight years under the Bush Administration.

When President George W. Bush entered the White House in January 2001, the federal government had total revenues of slightly more than $2.03 trillion and expenditures of $1.79 trillion, leaving a budget surplus of slightly less than $240 billion.

The following graph traces the growth in federal government tax receipts and expenditures and resulting surpluses or deficits over the last eight years.

Source: The 2008 Statistical Abstract, U.S. Census Bureau

Since 2000, government spending has increased by more than 55 percent. Even when adjusted for inflation in constant (2000) dollars, federal expenditures have risen by just short of 29 percent. During this same period, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has only increased by 17.3 percent. Thus, over the last eight years real government spending has gone up nearly twice as fast as the actual U.S. economy.

When the Clinton Administration left the White House, federal spending was 18.4 percent of GDP. In 2008, at the close of the Bush Administration, federal expenditure is 20.5 percent of GDP, for an 11.4 percent increase over the last eight years. 

Washington has run deficits almost every year during the Bush Administration. Total federal debt has doubled and has risen from 58 percent to 66 percent of GDP, for a 14 percent increase in U.S. taxpayers’ debt burden in terms of GDP. 

Where has all this additional spending gone? The table below shows the growth in government spending from 2000 to 2007 by general types and categories in constant dollars. (It is not a full and comprehensive list.)

Source: The 2008 Statistical Abstract, U.S. Census Bureau

By any measure, there has been an explosion in government spending in both the defense and non-defense categories. Not surprisingly with the two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, defense spending has risen during the Bush Administration by 61 percent in constant dollars. 

But “big government” domestic expenditures also have gotten a lot bigger during the presidency of George W. Bush. Welfare state spending has increased by 32 percent in constant dollars from what it was at the end of the Clinton Administration. 

Medical Care expenditures by the federal government (which includes Medicare, Medicaid, hospital and medical care for veterans, substance abuse and mental health services) has gone up by 54 percent in constant dollars under the current Republican administration. 

Not far behind, Food and Nutrition Assistance (which includes food stamps, child nutrition, and special milk programs, supplemental food programs) has increased 43 percent since 2000. 

Social Security and related payments have risen by 19 percent. Public Assistance (which includes family support payments to states, low income home energy assistance, earned income tax credits, legal services, payments to states for daycare assistance, payments to states for foster care/adoption assistance, and other related services) have gone up 17 percent. Housing assistance has increased by 12 percent. Federal student loans and related programs have increased by 129 percent. 

The incoming Obama administration will have to work very hard if it wants to exceed the Bush administration in growing the welfare state during its term in office.

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